Match Info

Chance Liga - Relegation Group - Round 5

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadion Juliska (Prague)

Referee: Roucek K. (Cze)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	Oneplay, Oneplay Sport 1, Oneplay Sport 4
Slovakia	Voyo


	Dukla Prague		Baník Ostrava

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.4	1.85	Watch
	3.8	3.4	1.93
	4.15	3.7	1.75
	4.04	3.83	1.85
	3.9	3.95	1.8
	3.7	3.4	1.85
	4.27	3.84	1.74	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.92 ↑ (3.2)	3.65 ↑ (3.31)	1.82 ↓ (2.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dukla Prague
23.7%

Draw
25.5%

Baník Ostrava
50.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29%

28%

42.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.1%

27.1%

44.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dukla Prague has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Dukla Prague's form might have worsened.

Baník Ostrava has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Baník Ostrava's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dukla Prague than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Baník Ostrava than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Baník Ostrava, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	8.3%	83.3%

Dukla Prague - Baník Ostrava Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Baník Ostrava (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Baník Ostrava will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
59. Backovsky H. (G) 18. Hasek D. 37. Pourzitidis M. 22. Traore M. 3. Sehovic Z. 6. Penxa L. 14. Tijani S. 5. Velasquez D. 19. Cermak M. (C) 10. Mikus R. 15. Gilbert D.	23. Jedlicka M. (G) 17. Frydrych M. (C) 37. Chalus M. 6. Pojezny K. 34. Bewene A. 55. Musak A. 80. Kricfalusi O. 99. Sinyavskiy V. 10. Plavsic S. 12. Gning A. 15. Jurecka V.
Substitutes
30. Diallo B. 7. Emeka C. 8. Gaszczyk P. 25. Hanousek Mar. 21. Hindi S. 31. Jagrik A. (G) 2. Kostka L. 17. Pekhart T. 23. Svozil J. 28. Unusic B. 20. Zitny M.	5. Boula J. 9. Buchta D. 1. Budinsky V. (G) 2. Havran M. 95. Holzer D. 25. Owusu D. 29. Pira J. 18. Planka D. 66. Rusnak M. 19. Sancl F. 22. Skrkon V.
Coaches
Sustr P.	Dvornik J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', Hasek D. 🟨,
25', Traore M. 🟨,
36', 0 - 1, Pourzitidis M. (Own goal),
43', Penxa L. 🟨,
45', Frydrych M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Sehovic Z. ↓, Unusic B. ↑,
54', Velasquez D. 🟨,
57', 0 - 2, Traore M. (Own goal),
60', Traore M. ↓, Diallo B. ↑,
68', Gning A. ↓, Skrkon V. ↑,
69', Mikus R. ↓, Hindi S. ↑,
69', Cermak M. ↓, Pekhart T. ↑,
74', 0 - 3, Penxa L. (Own goal),
78', Plavsic S. ↓, Pira J. ↑,
78', Musak A. ↓, Boula J. ↑,
78', Tijani S. ↓, Hanousek Mar. ↑,
87', Kricfalusi O. ↓, Planka D. ↑,
87', Sinyavskiy V. ↓, Holzer D. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dukla Prague won 0.

Recent performances by Dukla Prague have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Baník Ostrava's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Dukla Prague has had a series of away games.

In this match, Baník Ostrava is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Dukla Prague: Cisse N. (Injury) Hunal E. (Red Card) Kadak J. (Knee Injury) Kozma D. (Yellow Cards) Milla K. (Red Card)

There will not play in Baník Ostrava: Kohut M. (Injury) Kubala F. (Knee Injury) Latal D. (Knee Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Dukla Prague won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 24:24. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Dukla Prague won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:6. (average 2:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Ostrava	10	3	1	6	7:18	-11	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dukla Prague
Czech 1 Liga
16.05.26	Teplice - Dukla Prague	2:0 ✺
12.05.26	Mladá Boleslav - Dukla Prague	1:2 ✺
09.05.26	Dukla Prague - Slovácko	0:1 ✺
02.05.26	Zlín - Dukla Prague	2:1 ✺
25.04.26	Slovácko - Dukla Prague	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 LWLLW
- Baník Ostrava
Czech 1 Liga
16.05.26	Baník Ostrava - Zlín	2:0 ✺
12.05.26	Slovácko - Baník Ostrava	2:1 ✺
09.05.26	Teplice - Baník Ostrava	2:1 ✺
02.05.26	Baník Ostrava - Mladá Boleslav	0:0 ✺
25.04.26	Baník Ostrava - Viktoria Plzeň	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 WLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Czech 1 Liga
29.11.25	Baník Ostrava - Dukla Prague	3:1
03.08.25	Dukla Prague - Baník Ostrava	1:1
12.04.25	Dukla Prague - Baník Ostrava	1:2
09.11.24	Baník Ostrava - Dukla Prague	6:0
08.02.19	Dukla Prague - Baník Ostrava	1:1
25.08.18	Baník Ostrava - Dukla Prague	2:0
17.03.18	Baník Ostrava - Dukla Prague	1:2

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