Match Info

SCOTLAND: CHAMPIONSHIP - ROUND 20

Date: 2 January 2023, Monday

Location: Dens Park (Dundee)

Referee: Lambie S. (Sco)


	Dundee		Arbroath

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.2	7	Watch
	1.39	4.33	7.25
	1.43	4.3	6.25
	1.39	4.4	7
	1.39	4.79	8.26
	1.36	4.2	7.5	Watch
	1.36	4.8	7.9	Watch
	1.39	4.3	6.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↓ (1.6)	4.42 ↑ (3.69)	7.25 ↑ (4.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dundee
66.4%

Draw
20.9%

Arbroath
12.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57%

24.8%

18.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.3%

23.8%

17.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dundee has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Dundee's performance.

Arbroath has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Arbroath might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dundee than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Dundee that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arbroath than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.7%	3.3%	10%

Dundee - Arbroath Predictions

Users Predictions: Dundee will win (26 of 30 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.51% – 98.83%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Dundee won 3.

Dundee in the last match got a series victories and it is an a fantastic form (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recent matches Arbroath is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Dundee is certain favorite.

Our prediction for today's Dundee to win the game is with odds 1.47.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Dundee won 6 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 16-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Dundee won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 9-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dundee FC
Scottish Football Championship
23.12.22	Ayr United - Dundee	0:2 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
08.12.22	Falkirk - Dundee	0:3 ✺
Scottish Football Championship
03.12.22	Inverness - Dundee	0:1 ✺
Scottish Cup
26.11.22	Dundee - Airdrieonians	6:2 ET ✺
Scottish Football Championship
19.11.22	Dundee - Hamilton Academical	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WWWWW
- Arbroath
Scottish Football Championship
23.12.22	Arbroath - Queens Park	1:4 ✺
17.12.22	Raith Rovers - Arbroath	1:1 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
09.12.22	Arbroath - Dunfermline Athletic	1:5 ✺
Scottish Football Championship
03.12.22	Arbroath - Greenock Morton	1:1 ✺
Scottish Cup
26.11.22	Fraserburgh - Arbroath	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Football Championship
08.10.22	Arbroath - Dundee	1:1
12.08.22	Dundee - Arbroath	4:2
13.03.21	Dundee - Arbroath	2:0
22.01.21	Arbroath - Dundee	1:1
05.12.20	Dundee - Arbroath	1:0
07.12.19	Arbroath - Dundee	1:1
05.10.19	Dundee - Arbroath	2:0

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