Match Info

SCOTLAND: CHAMPIONSHIP - ROUND 19

Date: 23 December 2022, Friday

Location: Somerset Park (Ayr)

Referee: McLean S. (Sco)


	Ayr United		Dundee

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.4	2.25	Watch
	2.9	3.4	2.15
	2.9	3.3	2.28
	3	3.4	2.17
	3.18	3.55	2.23
	3.1	3.25	2.15
	3.1	3.54	2.15	Watch
	2.95	3.35	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	3 ↑ (2.3)	3.4 ↑ (3.2)	2.19 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ayr United
30.7%

Draw
27.1%

Dundee
42.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.4%

28.3%

32.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.3%

30.4%

30.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ayr United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ayr United's form might have worsened.

Dundee has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Dundee's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ayr United than the current prediction. (+11.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ayr United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dundee than the current prediction. (-12%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Dundee, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	19%	47.6%

Ayr United - Dundee Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Ayr will win (votes: 7 - 33.3%). Dundee will win (votes: 10 - 47.6%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 19%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Dundee: 26.2% – 69%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ayr won 3.

Ayr is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Dundee is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Dundee could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph bor both teams are almost equal.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Ayr won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 13-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Ayr won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ayr United
Scottish Football Championship
17.12.22	Partick Thistle - Ayr United	3:2 ✺
03.12.22	Ayr United - Raith Rovers	2:0 ✺
Scottish Cup
28.11.22	Ayr United - Pollok	1:0 ✺
Scottish Football Championship
19.11.22	Inverness - Ayr United	2:2 ✺
11.11.22	Hamilton Academical - Ayr United	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LWWTW
- Dundee FC
Scottish Challenge Cup
08.12.22	Falkirk - Dundee	0:3 ✺
Scottish Football Championship
03.12.22	Inverness - Dundee	0:1 ✺
Scottish Cup
26.11.22	Dundee - Airdrieonians	6:2 ET ✺
Scottish Football Championship
19.11.22	Dundee - Hamilton Academical	1:0 ✺
12.11.22	Dundee - Raith Rovers	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Football Championship
15.10.22	Dundee - Ayr United	2:1
26.08.22	Ayr United - Dundee	3:1
06.04.21	Ayr United - Dundee	0:3
16.03.21	Dundee - Ayr United	1:3
21.11.20	Ayr United - Dundee	2:0
10.03.20	Dundee - Ayr United	2:0
07.03.20	Ayr United - Dundee	0:0

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