Match Info

Premiership - Round 11

Date: 28 October 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Dens Park (Dundee) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Nicolson D. (Sco)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
United Kingdom	19:45	Dundee TV, Kilmarnock TV


	Dundee		Kilmarnock

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.50	3.80
	1.90	3.60	3.70
	1.94	3.50	3.45	Watch
	2.02	3.80	3.62
	1.92	3.84	3.69	Watch
	2.00	3.75	3.55
	1.89	3.70	3.70	Watch
	1.93	3.75	3.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↑ (1.86)	3.68 ↑ (3.6)	3.64 ↑ (3.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dundee
48.6%

Draw
25.6%

Kilmarnock
25.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

49.2%

25.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.3%

24.9%

24.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dundee has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Kilmarnock has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dundee than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kilmarnock than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	25%	12.5%

Dundee - Kilmarnock Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Dundee will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Kilmarnock will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Dundee: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

1X2 - Dundee (1.91) (votes: 88%) ⭐ Best Value.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Goodman O. (G) 7. Wright D. 26. Wright J. 4. Astley R. 12. Samuels I. 27. Bevan J. 28. Jones C. 48. Hamilton E. (C) 14. Forrest A. 11. Hay A. 21. Fink B.	58. Mantl N. (G) 2. Brandon J. 4. McCarthy C. 14. Stanger G. 6. Deas R. 18. Lowery T. 36. Tshibola A. 21. Schjonning-Larsen M. 10. John-Jules T. 9. Hugill J. 11. Kiltie G. (C)
Substitutes
6. Akinmboni M. 17. Besir Z. 2. Halliday B. 77. Harrison A. 3. Odutayo I. 45. Perrie C. 18. Reilly C. 30. Sharp H. (G) 19. Westley J.	29. Daniels D. 32. Ellis R. 12. Ferrie C. (G) 3. Kamara M. 23. Mathurin R. 7. McKenzie R. 19. Meier J. 27. Owen I. 8. Ring E.
Coaches
Pressley S.	McCann N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
32', 1 - 0, Bevan J. ⚽, Hamilton E. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
58', McCarthy C. 🟨,
60', Bevan J. ↓, Reilly C. ↑,
65', Fink B. ↓, Westley J. ↑,
66', Wright J. ↓, Akinmboni M. ↑,
70', Deas R. ↓, Kamara M. ↑,
75', 1 - 1, Hugill J. (Penalty Awarded),
76', Kiltie G. ↓, Owen I. ↑,
76', Brandon J. ↓, Meier J. ↑,
78', Jones C. ↓, Besir Z. ↑,
83', 2 - 1, Hay A. ⚽, Forrest A. (A),
85', Stanger G. 🟨,
89', McCarthy C. ↓, Daniels D. ↑,
90+3', Kamara M. 🟨,
90+4', 3 - 1, Hay A. ⚽, Goodman O. (A),

Preview

A clash between a stable mid-table side and a team seeking crucial survival points (ranked 5th in the Promotion - Premiership (Championship Group: ) and 11th in the Premiership (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dundee won 3.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Dundee is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Dundee has recorded 6 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 32:36 (averaging 1.6:1.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Dundee against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, with 17:16 goals (averaging 1.9:1.8 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Dundee FC	11	5	2	4	17:13	4	17
12	Kilmarnock	11	2	2	7	11:26	-15	8

Outrights of Scottish Premier League for now

Dundee FC: 0.47% Kilmarnock: 0.17%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dundee FC
Scottish Premier League
24.10.26	St. Mirren - Dundee	2:1 ✺
17.10.26	Dundee - Glasgow Rangers	2:2 ✺
10.10.26	Falkirk - Dundee	1:2 ✺
19.09.26	Dundee - Motherwell	2:1 ✺
06.09.26	Hearts - Dundee	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.8 LTWWL
- Kilmarnock FC
Scottish Premier League
24.10.26	Falkirk - Kilmarnock	3:0 ✺
17.10.26	Kilmarnock - Motherwell	3:2 ✺
10.10.26	Glasgow Rangers - Kilmarnock	3:1 ✺
19.09.26	Kilmarnock - Hearts	1:1 ✺
15.09.26	Hibernian - Kilmarnock	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.8 LWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Premier League
12.05.26	Kilmarnock - Dundee	3:1
11.04.26	Kilmarnock - Dundee	1:2
Scottish Cup
17.01.26	Kilmarnock - Dundee	1:2
Scottish Premier League
30.12.25	Dundee - Kilmarnock	2:1
23.08.25	Kilmarnock - Dundee	0:0
10.05.25	Kilmarnock - Dundee	3:2
30.11.24	Kilmarnock - Dundee	1:1

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