Match Info

Premiership - Round 7

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Rugby Park (Kilmarnock)

Referee: Nicolson D. (Sco)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SupeSport ESPN 2
Australia	beIN Connect
Belarus	Voka TV
Germany	Sportdigital1+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SupeSport ESPN 2
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Russia	Telekanal Futbol
Serbia	Arena Sport 3, Arena Sport 8
South-africa	SupeSport ESPN 2
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime 2
United-kingdom	Hearts TV, Kilmarnock TV, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Usa	Paramount+


	Kilmarnock		Hearts

	1	X	2
	4.50	3.90	1.68
	4.10	3.80	1.75
	4.35	3.85	1.67	Watch
	4.73	4.08	1.76
	4.56	4.04	1.71	Watch
	4.65	4.00	1.70
	4.51	3.90	1.69	Watch
	4.40	4.10	1.79
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.48 ↓ (4.5)	3.96 ↑ (3.9)	1.72 ↑ (1.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Kilmarnock
21.1%

Draw
23.9%

Hearts
55%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.3%

23.4%

56.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.6%

22.6%

58.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kilmarnock has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Hearts has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kilmarnock than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hearts than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	10%	80%

Kilmarnock - Hearts Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Kilmarnock (votes: 1 - 50%). Hearts (votes: 1 - 50%).

New Consensus by Tipsters:

1X2 - Hearts (1.80) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

Users Predictions: Hearts will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Ferrie C. (G) 2. Brandon J. 4. McCarthy C. 14. Stanger G. 21. Schjonning-Larsen M. 8. Ring E. 18. Lowery T. 49. Rice B. 11. Kiltie G. (C) 10. John-Jules T. 9. Hugill J.	1. Reus B. (G) 2. Borchgrevink C. 5. McCart J. 17. Findlay S. 3. Kingsley S. (C) 7. Miller C. 78. Mendy L. 22. Magnusson T. 15. McPake J. 21. Wilson J. 10. Braga C.
Substitutes
40. Armour C. (G) 39. Bowie E. 37. Burke C. 20. Clescenco N. 7. McKenzie R. 19. Meier J. 5. O'Hara M. 27. Owen I. 36. Tshibola A.	8. Ageu 23. Altena J. 31. Dhanda Y. 30. Fulton R. (G) 19. Guendouz S. 29. Kerjota S. 74. Mato R. 18. Milne H. 9. Williams J.
Coaches
McCann N.	Vrancken W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', McCarthy C. 🟨,
16', 1 - 0, McCart J. (Own goal),
32', Findlay S. ↓, Milne H. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
59', Braga C. ↓, Williams J. ↑,
59', Magnusson T. ↓, Ageu ↑,
59', McPake J. ↓, Guendouz S. ↑,
63', Kingsley S. 🟨,
67', Rice B. ↓, Tshibola A. ↑,
69', Miller C. ↓, Kerjota S. ↑,
76', John-Jules T. ↓, O'Hara M. ↑,
82', Lowery T. ↓, McKenzie R. ↑,
83', Schjonning-Larsen M. 🟨,
86', 1 - 1, Kingsley S. ⚽,
90', Borchgrevink C. 🟨,

Preview

A high-stakes clash as a relegation-threatened team welcomes an elite contender (ranked 12th in the Premiership (Relegation Group: ) and 3rd in the Promotion ~ Premiership (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kilmarnock won 1.

Recent results have been tough for Kilmarnock (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Hearts is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Kilmarnock may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Hearts carries the favorite tag into this contest.

Confirmed absences for Kilmarnock: Daniels D. (Red Card) Deas R. (Inactive).

Confirmed absences for Hearts: Ageu (Thigh Injury) Fagan-Walcott M. (Inactive) Halkett C. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Renaud T. (Injury) Spittal B. (Inactive).

Doubtful / questionable for Hearts: McEntee O. (Inactive).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Kilmarnock has recorded 9 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 23:21 (averaging 1.2:1.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Kilmarnock against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, with 10:10 goals (averaging 1:1 per game).

Outrights of Scottish Premier League for now

Hearts: 4.18% Kilmarnock: 0.25%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Hearts	7	4	1	2	14:8	6	13
12	Kilmarnock	7	1	2	4	6:15	-9	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kilmarnock FC
Scottish Premier League
15.09.26	Hibernian - Kilmarnock	0:1 ✺
Scottish League Cup
12.09.26	Kilmarnock - Aberdeen	1:2 penalties ✺
Scottish Premier League
05.09.26	Aberdeen - Kilmarnock	0:0 ✺
02.09.26	Kilmarnock - St. Mirren	0:1 ✺
29.08.26	Kilmarnock - Dundee United	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WLTLL
- Heart of Midlothian
Scottish Premier League
15.09.26	Falkirk - Hearts	2:1 ✺
Scottish League Cup
11.09.26	Stenhousemuir - Hearts	0:3 ✺
Scottish Premier League
06.09.26	Hearts - Dundee	2:1 ✺
03.09.26	Hibernian - Hearts	1:3 ✺
29.08.26	Hearts - St. Johnstone	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Premier League
14.03.26	Kilmarnock - Hearts	1:0
03.12.25	Hearts - Kilmarnock	1:1
18.10.25	Kilmarnock - Hearts	0:3
18.05.25	Kilmarnock - Hearts	0:1
25.01.25	Hearts - Kilmarnock	3:2
15.12.24	Kilmarnock - Hearts	1:0
30.10.24	Hearts - Kilmarnock	1:2

Upcoming Matches