Match Info

SCOTLAND: LEAGUE CUP

Date: 22 July 2023, Saturday

Location: East End Park (Dunfermline)


	Dunfermline Athletic		Kilmarnock

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.4	2
	3.3	3.2	2.05
	3.3	3.15	2.1
	3.51	3.22	2.07
	2.9	3.4	2.05
	3.4	3.56	2.06
	3.25	3.25	2.07
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.29 ↓ (4.33)	3.31 ↓ (3.77)	2.06 ↑ (1.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dunfermline Athletic
27.8%

Draw
27.7%

Kilmarnock
44.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.1%

24.2%

54.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21%

24.3%

55%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dunfermline Athletic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Dunfermline Athletic's performance.

Kilmarnock has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Kilmarnock might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dunfermline Athletic than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Dunfermline Athletic that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kilmarnock than the current prediction. (+10.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Kilmarnock could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	12.5%	12.5%

Dunfermline Athletic - Kilmarnock Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Dunfermline will win (votes: 12 - 75%). Kilmarnock will win (votes: 2 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Dunfermline: 53.8% – 96.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mehmet D. (G) 15. Fisher S. 4. Benedictus K. 6. Otoo E. 2. Comrie A. 28. Tod A. 8. Chalmers J. 3. Edwards J. 5. Hamilton C. 9. Wighton C. 11. McCann L.	1. Dennis W. (G) 5. Mayo L. 6. Deas R. 17. Findlay S. 3. Ndaba C. 11. Armstrong D. 10. Kennedy M. 8. Lyons B. 15. Murray F. 12. Watson D. 22. Cameron I.
Substitutes
18. Allan P. 12. Breen R. 19. Fenton M. 29. Hoggan L. 44. Little M. (G) 26. Sutherland T.	16. Magennis K. 21. McInroy K. 20. O'Hara K. (G) 31. Polworth L. 28. Quigg A. 9. Vassell K. 24. Wales B. 25. Warnock S. 23. Watkins M.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Dunfermline won 0.

Dunfermline is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Kilmarnock is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Dunfermline could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Kilmarnock will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Dunfermline won 1 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 8-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Dunfermline won 0 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dunfermline Athletic
Scottish League Cup
18.07.23	Dunfermline Athletic - Annan Athletic	4:0 ✺
15.07.23	Raith Rovers - Dunfermline Athletic	1:2 penalties ✺
Club Friendly
11.07.23	Alloa Athletic - Dunfermline Athletic	0:1 ✺
09.07.23	Dunfermline Athletic - Hearts	1:1 ✺
04.07.23	Dunfermline Athletic - St. Johnstone	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.8 WWWTT
- Kilmarnock FC
Scottish League Cup
15.07.23	Kilmarnock - Annan Athletic	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
08.07.23	Linfield - Kilmarnock	1:0 ✺
04.07.23	Glentoran - Kilmarnock	1:0 ✺
Scottish Premier League
28.05.23	Kilmarnock - Ross County	3:1 ✺
24.05.23	Dundee United - Kilmarnock	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
05.07.22	Dunfermline Athletic - Kilmarnock	0:1
Scottish Football Championship
09.04.22	Kilmarnock - Dunfermline Athletic	2:0
26.02.22	Dunfermline Athletic - Kilmarnock	0:0
12.02.22	Kilmarnock - Dunfermline Athletic	2:1
16.10.21	Dunfermline Athletic - Kilmarnock	2:2
Scottish League Cup
13.10.20	Kilmarnock - Dunfermline Athletic	0:3
Scottish Premier League
12.05.12	Dunfermline Athletic - Kilmarnock	1:2

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