Match Info

Carioca 2 - Round 9

Date: 28 June 2025, Saturday


	Duque de Caxias		Americano Rio de Janeiro

	1	X	2
	2.37	2.85	2.85
	2.61	2.91	2.79
	2.55	2.8	2.77
	2.14	3.08	3.27
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↑ (2.17)	2.91 ↓ (3)	2.92 ↓ (3.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Duque de Caxias
37.6%

Draw
31.2%

Americano Rio de Janeiro
31.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.2%

30.5%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.4%

30.6%

27.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Duque de Caxias has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Americano Rio de Janeiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Duque de Caxias than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Americano Rio de Janeiro than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Duque de Caxias - Americano Rio de Janeiro Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Wander Hudson ⚽,
34', 🟥,
40', 2 - 0, Sa Carlos ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
54', 2 - 1, ⚽,
63', 🟥,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 9 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Carioca 2 (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In recent matches, Duque de Caxias has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Americano is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Duque de Caxias won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Duque de Caxias won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Duque de Caxias
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca 2
21.06.25	Araruama - Duque de Caxias	0:0 ✺
14.06.25	Duque de Caxias - America RJ	1:1 ✺
07.06.25	Audax Rio - Duque de Caxias	2:1 ✺
04.06.25	Duque de Caxias - São Gonçalo	0:2 ✺
31.05.25	Duque de Caxias - Olaria	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TTLLW
- Americano Rio de Janeiro
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca 2
21.06.25	Americano Rio de Janeiro - Olaria	0:0 ✺
14.06.25	Bangu - Americano Rio de Janeiro	1:1 ✺
07.06.25	Americano Rio de Janeiro - Petrópolis	1:0 ✺
04.06.25	Resende - Americano Rio de Janeiro	0:1 ✺
31.05.25	Americano Rio de Janeiro - Cabofriense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.3 TTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Carioca 2
15.06.24	Americano Rio de Janeiro - Duque de Caxias	0:1
05.06.21	Duque de Caxias - Americano Rio de Janeiro	1:1

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