Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Round 32

Date: 26 April 2025, Saturday


	Durango		Basconia

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.6	1.65
	3.9	3.75	1.73
	3.97	4.02	1.7
	3.96	4.03	1.7	Watch
	4.41	3.92	1.62
	3.9	3.75	1.73
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.08 ↓ (4.18)	3.85 ↑ (3.7)	1.69 (1.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Durango
22.3%

Draw
23.7%

Basconia
54%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.7%

24.5%

53.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.6%

24.4%

54%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Durango has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Basconia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Durango than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

The ML Model estimate for Basconia aligns with the current prediction.

Durango - Basconia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
27', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
50', 1 - 1, ⚽,
90+5', 🟥,

Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 13 and 1 in the zone Promotion).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Durango won 0.

Durango is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Basconia in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Durango could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Basconia is a favorite.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Durango won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 9:16 (average 0.9:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Durango won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 3:6 (average 1:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SCD Durango
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
16.04.25	Leioa - Durango	1:3 ✺
12.04.25	Durango - Aretxabaleta	3:1 ✺
05.04.25	San Viator - Durango	0:1 ✺
29.03.25	Durango - Portugalete	0:1 ✺
23.03.25	Eibar C - Durango	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.3 WWWLT
- CD Basconia
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
17.04.25	Basconia - Urduliz	8:0 ✺
06.04.25	Basconia - Alavés C	3:0 ✺
29.03.25	Derio - Basconia	1:2 ✺
23.03.25	Basconia - Santurtzi	1:1 ✺
01.03.25	San Ignacio - Basconia	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
15.12.24	Basconia - Durango	2:1
28.03.24	Basconia - Durango	1:1
11.11.23	Durango - Basconia	1:2
22.04.23	Basconia - Durango	5:1
07.01.23	Durango - Basconia	2:3
15.01.22	Durango - Basconia	0:1
11.09.21	Basconia - Durango	0:1

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