Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Round 28

Date: 29 March 2025, Saturday


	Derio		Basconia

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.4	1.77
	3.65	3.3	1.91
	3.74	3.29	1.94	Watch
	4.03	3.41	1.9
	3.65	3.3	1.91
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.77 ↓ (5.73)	3.34 ↓ (3.75)	1.89 ↑ (1.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derio
24.2%

Draw
27.4%

Basconia
48.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.8%

24.2%

60%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.7%

24%

60.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Derio's performance.

Basconia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Basconia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derio than the current prediction. (-8.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Derio that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Basconia than the current prediction. (+12%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Basconia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Derio - Basconia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 2)
57', 0 - 1, ⚽,
63', 1 - 1, ⚽,
90+7', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy watching a meeting between a mid-table team and a leading team (ranked 10 and 1 in the zone Promotion).

Recent matches Derio is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Basconia in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Basconia could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Basconia is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Derio won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1:4 (average 0.3:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Derio won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Derio
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
22.03.25	Leioa - Derio	2:1 ✺
15.03.25	Derio - Aretxabaleta	2:0 ✺
09.03.25	San Viator - Derio	0:0 ✺
01.03.25	Derio - Portugalete	1:1 ✺
23.02.25	Eibar C - Derio	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LWTTT
- CD Basconia
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
23.03.25	Basconia - Santurtzi	1:1 ✺
01.03.25	San Ignacio - Basconia	0:3 ✺
23.02.25	Padura - Basconia	1:2 ✺
16.02.25	Basconia - Leioa	3:0 ✺
09.02.25	Aretxabaleta - Basconia	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
17.11.24	Basconia - Derio	2:0
27.01.24	Derio - Basconia	0:0
10.09.23	Basconia - Derio	2:1

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