Match Info

BRAZIL: Gaucho - Relegation Group - Round 2

Date: 23 February 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Boca do Lobo (Pelotas)


	EC Pelotas		Avenida

	1	X	2
	1.95	3	4	Watch
				Watch
	2	2.91	4.63
	1.93	2.91	4.43	Watch
	2	3	3.8
	2	3.08	4.1	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↓ (2.19)	2.98 ↓ (3.02)	4.19 ↑ (3.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

EC Pelotas
46.9%

Draw
31.1%

Avenida
22.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.1%

30.4%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.3%

27%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

EC Pelotas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Avenida has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Avenida might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for EC Pelotas than the current prediction. (-9.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with EC Pelotas that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avenida than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Avenida could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

EC Pelotas - Avenida Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jorge (G) 10. Cesinha 2. Guilherme Gusso 18. Leo Ferraz 9. Michel Douglas 11. Ruster 6. Tiago Troleze 8. Venicio 3. Victor Massaia 5. Vitinho 4. Yuri Bigode	1. Rodrigo Mama (G) 5. Amaral 9. Caique 6. Jimenez J. 11. JP Bardales 3. Kevlin 7. Laion 10. Matheus Martins 4. Vitor Dadalt 2. Yander 8. Ze Vitor
Substitutes
12. Ari (G) 22. Bruno Martins 20. Duda 21. Emerson Brito 13. Heverton 14. Jacone 19. Luizinho 7. Marcelinho 15. Mateus Silva 23. Murilo (G) 16. Robson Lopes 17. Xandy	18. Brayan 16. David Luis 12. Gabriel Toebe (G) 21. Gorgoroso Y. 13. Leo Cruz 15. Luiz Meneses 20. Michel 23. Paniagua M. 19. Poletto V. 14. Rafael Klein 22. Ronald (G) 17. Tallyson

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
6', 1 - 0, Ruster ⚽,
25', Vitinho 🟨,
25', Amaral 🟨,
28', 2 - 0, Cesinha ⚽,
45+5', 2 - 1, Caique (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Ruster ↓, Marcelinho ↑,
50', Amaral ↓, Luiz Meneses ↑,
53', Cesinha ↓, Emerson Brito ↑,
53', Vitinho ↓, Mateus Silva ↑,
55', Kevlin 🟨,
62', JP Bardales ↓, Michel ↑,
62', Yander ↓, Gorgoroso Y. ↑,
66', Venicio ↓, Robson Lopes ↑,
70', 2 - 2, Michel ⚽,
80', Luiz Meneses 🟨,
82', Caique ↓, Tallyson ↑,
83', Matheus Martins ↓, Paniagua M. ↑,
84', Leo Ferraz ↓, Xandy ↑,
85', Gorgoroso Y. 🟨,
90+2', Laion 🟨,

Preview

Recent matches Pelotas is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Avenida is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Avenida could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Avenida have a series of home games.

Pelotas will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Pelotas won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:0 (average 0.7:0).

Including matches at home between the teams Pelotas won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:0 (average 1:0).

Last Results with these Odds

Avenida - the odds 3.35 are the expected chance of winning is 27.49%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Pelotas
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
19.02.25	EC São José Porto Alegre - EC Pelotas	2:2 ✺
15.02.25	EC Pelotas - Juventude	2:3 ✺
11.02.25	Grêmio - EC Pelotas	5:0 ✺
08.02.25	EC Pelotas - Brasil de Pelotas	0:0 ✺
05.02.25	São Luiz - EC Pelotas	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 TLLTW
- EC Avenida
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
19.02.25	Avenida - Brasil de Pelotas	1:1 ✺
15.02.25	Avenida - Brasil de Pelotas	1:1 ✺
12.02.25	Avenida - Juventude	1:1 ✺
09.02.25	Monsoon - Avenida	2:1 ✺
05.02.25	Avenida - Caxias	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 TTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
30.01.25	EC Pelotas - Avenida	1:0
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho 2
05.06.22	EC Pelotas - Avenida	1:0
20.04.22	Avenida - EC Pelotas	0:0

EC Pelotas - Avenida: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide