Match Info

BRAZIL: Gaucho - Round 8

Date: 15 February 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Boca do Lobo (Pelotas)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	SporTV 3


	EC Pelotas		Juventude

	1	X	2
	5.75	3.4	1.67	Watch
	4.7	3.2	1.69
	5.01	3.3	1.75
	4.98	3.32	1.71	Watch
	4.8	3.2	1.75
	5.74	3.4	1.66	Watch
	4.7	3.2	1.69
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.1 ↑ (4)	3.29 ↑ (2.98)	1.7 ↓ (2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

EC Pelotas
18%

Draw
28%

Juventude
54%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23%

30.9%

46.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.5%

30.2%

47.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

EC Pelotas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Juventude has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Juventude's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for EC Pelotas than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Juventude than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Juventude, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

EC Pelotas - Juventude Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jorge (G) 6. Bruno Re 10. Cesinha 11. Emerson Brito 15. Mateus Silva 9. Michel Douglas 5. Robson Lopes (C) 8. Venicio 3. Victor Massaia 2. Vidal 4. Yuri Bigode	1. Gustavo (G) 3. Adriano Martins 88. Davi Goes 97. Enio 7. Erick Farias (C) 2. Ewerthon 6. Felipinho 8. Giraldo D. 20. Jean Carlos 38. Kawan 98. Vitor Pernambuco
Substitutes
12. Ari (G) 16. Bryan 22. Guilherme Gusso 13. Heverton 14. Jacone 18. Leo Ferraz 19. Luizinho 7. Marcelinho 23. Murilo (G) 20. Ruster 21. Tiago Troleze 17. Xandy	28. Alan Ruschel 27. Batalla E. 43. Clebio 30. Dudu Vieira 19. Gabriel Taliari 16. Jadson 15. Kelvi Gomes 77. Luiz Henrique 44. Mandaca 37. Petterson 93. Reginaldo 31. Ze Henrique (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
32', Bruno Re ↓, Bryan ↑,
34', 0 - 1, Enio ⚽,
35', 🟨,
36', 🟨,
39', Robson Lopes 🟥,
45+5', Ewerthon 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Vidal ↓, Guilherme Gusso ↑,
46', Michel Douglas ↓, Ruster ↑,
46', Emerson Brito ↓, Leo Ferraz ↑,
46', Ewerthon ↓, Reginaldo ↑,
46', Enio ↓, Petterson ↑,
64', Mateus Silva 🟥,
67', Erick Farias ↓, Gabriel Taliari ↑,
67', Jean Carlos ↓, Mandaca ↑,
74', 1 - 1, Yuri Bigode ⚽,
77', 2 - 1, Leo Ferraz ⚽,
78', Adriano Martins ↓, Batalla E. ↑,
79', Cesinha ↓, Jacone ↑,
89', 2 - 2, Batalla E. ⚽,
90+1', Victor Massaia 🟨,
90+4', 2 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

Juventude is Qualified for Gaucho (Play Offs Semi~finals)

Recent matches Pelotas is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Juventude in the latest match got series victories and it is in excellent form (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Pelotas could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Juventude is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Pelotas
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
11.02.25	Grêmio - EC Pelotas	5:0 ✺
08.02.25	EC Pelotas - Brasil de Pelotas	0:0 ✺
05.02.25	São Luiz - EC Pelotas	1:2 ✺
02.02.25	Guarany de Bagé - EC Pelotas	1:0 ✺
30.01.25	EC Pelotas - Avenida	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 LTWLW
- EC Juventude
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
12.02.25	Avenida - Juventude	1:1 ✺
09.02.25	Juventude - EC São José Porto Alegre	3:1 ✺
05.02.25	Juventude - Grêmio	2:0 ✺
01.02.25	Caxias - Juventude	0:2 ✺
28.01.25	Juventude - Guarany de Bagé	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 TWWWW

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