Match Info

ENGLAND: National League Cup - Round 4

Date: 21 January 2025, Tuesday

Location: Stonebridge Road Stadium (Northfleet)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	National League TV


	Ebbsfleet United		Nottingham Forest U21

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.75	1.88
	3.1	3.75	1.95
	3.23	3.95	1.97
	3.17	4.04	1.91	Watch
	3.22	4.05	1.91
	3.1	3.75	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.15 ↑ (2.56)	3.88 ↓ (4.12)	1.93 ↓ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ebbsfleet United
29%

Draw
23.6%

Nottingham Forest U21
47.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.9%

22.3%

41.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.2%

21.2%

43.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ebbsfleet United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ebbsfleet United's form might have worsened.

Nottingham Forest U21 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Nottingham Forest U21's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ebbsfleet United than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ebbsfleet United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nottingham Forest U21 than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Ebbsfleet United - Nottingham Forest U21 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Firth H. (G) 37. Aoraha A. 9. Bingham R. 16. Domi F. 20. Lankshear A. 26. Manktelow M. 21. Odokonyero N. 24. Olagunju M. 12. Samuel D. 19. Tanga J. 25. Wakely J.	1. Murray-Jones G. (G) 4. Abbott Z. 2. Back F. 9. Gardner J. 8. Hammond B. 3. McAdam K. 11. Nadin J. 10. Perkins J. 6. Perry B. (C) 7. Sinclair J. 5. Thompson J.
Substitutes
22. Chapman B. 1. Cousins M. (G) 17. Edser T. 11. Moncur G. 33. Stewart A. 27. Tanner C. 39. Thomas K.	15. Berry A. 14. Fletcher K. 16. Frank D. 17. Norkett M. 12. Willows K. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Domi F. ↓, Stewart A. ↑,
49', Aoraha A. ↓, Tanner C. ↑,
57', Wakely J. ↓, Chapman B. ↑,
62', 🟨,
63', Nadin J. ↓, Berry A. ↑,
63', Olagunju M. 🟨,
72', Samuel D. ↓, Moncur G. ↑,
73', Odokonyero N. ↓, Thomas K. ↑,
74', Perry B. ↓, Frank D. ↑,
84', 0 - 1, McAdam K. ⚽,
90+1', Gardner J. ↓, Norkett M. ↑,
90+2', 1 - 1, Thomas K. ⚽,
Penalties (2 - 1)
1, Norkett M. (Pen),
1, Bingham R. (Pen),
2, Berry A. (Pen),
2, Thomas K. (Pen),
3, Sinclair J. (Pen),
3, Moncur G. (Pen),
4, McAdam K. (Pen),
4, Tanga J. (Pen),
5, Thompson J. (Pen),

Preview

You will have a great opportunity to watch a game between two neighbours in a tournament table (ranked 7 and 6).

Both teams are in bad shape now.

Nottingham U21 could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Nottingham U21 have a series of home games.

Nottingham U21 will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ebbsfleet United
English National League
18.01.25	Woking - Ebbsfleet United	1:1 ✺
14.01.25	Ebbsfleet United - Yeovil Town	1:1 ✺
11.01.25	Boston United - Ebbsfleet United	2:2 ✺
English National League Cup
07.01.25	Ebbsfleet United - West Ham United U21	1:2 ✺
English National League
01.01.25	Ebbsfleet United - Dagenham & Redbridge	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 TTTLL
- Nottingham Forest U21
English Premier League 2
17.01.25	Nottingham Forest U21 - Chelsea U21	2:4 ✺
English Premier League International Cup
20.12.24	Nottingham Forest U21 - Monaco II	3:1 ✺
English Premier League 2
16.12.24	Nottingham Forest U21 - Manchester City U21	2:3 ✺
English National League Cup
10.12.24	Braintree Town - Nottingham Forest U21	1:0 ✺
English Premier League Cup
06.12.24	Nottingham Forest U21 - Leicester City U21	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LWLLL

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