Match Info

Africa Cup of Nations - Play Offs - 3rd place

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade Mohamed V (Casablanca)

Where to Watch on TV:


Afghanistan	Meraj Sport, Tolo TV
Africa	AfroSport TV Africa, Azam Sports 1, CANAL+ CAN, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, New World Sport App, SuperSport Maximo 360, SuperSport PSL, ZAP
Angola	TPA 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Max 1, beIN Sports MENA Max 1, beIN Sports MENA Max 1, beIN Sports MENA Max 2, beIN Sports MENA Max 2, beIN Sports MENA Max 2, beIN Sports MENA Max 3, beIN Sports MENA Max 3, beIN Sports MENA Max 3, beIN Sports MENA Max 4, beIN Sports MENA Max 4, beIN Sports MENA Max 4
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN
Benin	Benin TV
Brazil	Band Play, BandSports
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1, Max Sport 2
Burkina-faso	RTB
Cameroon	Canal 2 International, CRTV Sports, Dash TV, Equinoxe, Media Sport Info
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
China	ZhiBo8
Colombia	Win play, Win Sports
Cote-d-ivoire	NCI, RTI 3
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 3, Cablenet Sports 3
Egypt	On Time Sports 1
Equatorial-guinea	TVGE Internacional
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Gabon	Groupe Gabon Televisions
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Magenta Sport, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	ERT Sports 2
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect
Italy	Sportitalia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Sport+
Madagascar	MATV
Malaysia	beIN Connect
Mali	ORTM
Mauritius	MBC 11
Mexico	Claro Sports, FOX One, Fox Sports
Morocco	Al Aoula, Arryadia TNT, SNRT Live
Mozambique	TVM 1, TV Miramar
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	NTA Sports
Norway	VG+
Republic-of-the-congo	Tele Congo
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 6
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
South-africa	SABC 2, SABC Plus
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 2
Suriname	QN Sports, SCCN
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	Exxen
Uganda	UBC TV
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Channel 4, E4
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	Inter
Zambia	ZNBC 1


	Egypt		Nigeria

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.2	2.2	Watch
	3.55	3.15	2.22	Watch
	4.33	3.16	2.07	Watch
	3.25	3.1	2.2
	3.84	3.14	2.27	Watch
	3.75	3.1	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.69 ↓ (3.75)	3.14 ↑ (3.02)	2.18 ↓ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Egypt
25.9%

Draw
30.4%

Nigeria
43.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.6%

31.8%

42.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.2%

31.4%

43.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Egypt has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Nigeria has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Egypt than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nigeria than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	27.8%	55.6%

Egypt - Nigeria Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Egypt will win (votes: 3 - 18.8%). Nigeria will win (votes: 8 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 31.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nigeria: 25.5% – 74.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - draw (2.71) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Nigeria will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Shobeir O. (G) Al Ahly 3. Hany M. Al Ahly 5. Rabia R. Al Ain 14. Fathy H. Al Wakra 2. Sobhi K. Al Masry 25. Zizo Al Ahly 17. Lasheen M. Pyramids 10. Salah M. (C) Liverpool 8. Ashour E. Al Ahly 7. Trezeguet Al Ahly 11. Mostafa Mohamed Nantes	23. Nwabali S. (G) Chippa Utd. 2. Osayi-Samuel B. Birmingham 6. Ajayi S. Hull City 5. Ogbu I. Slavia Prague 13. Onyemaechi B. Olympiacos Piraeus 11. Chukwueze S. Fulham 18. Onyedika R. Club Brugge 10. Dele-Bashiru F. Lazio 22. Adams A. Sevilla 19. Onuachu P. Trabzonspor 15. Simon M. (C) Paris FC
Substitutes
20. Adel I. Al Jazira 24. Eid A. Al Masry 1. El Shenawy A. (G) Pyramids 23. El Shenawy M. (G) Al Ahly 21. Faisal O. National Bank Egypt 18. Fathi M. Pyramids 28. Ismail M. Zamalek 22. Marmoush O. Manchester City 27. Saber M. ZED FC 15. Shehata M. Zamalek 16. Sobhi M. (G) Zamalek	26. Akinsanmiro E. Pisa 27. Alebiosu R. Blackburn 20. Awaziem C. Nantes 24. Ejuke C. Sevilla 17. Iwobi A. Fulham 25. Lawal S. Istra 1961 7. Lookman A. Atalanta 14. Mohammed U. Ironi Tiberias 28. Nnadi T. Waregem 16. Obasogie A. (G) Singida Black Stars 8. Onyeka F. Brentford 9. Osimhen V. Galatasaray 1. Uzoho F. (G) Omonia 3. Zaidu FC Porto
Coaches
Hassan H.	Chelle E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
39', Onuachu P. 🟨,
45', Simon M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Onuachu P. ↓, Lookman A. ↑,
60', Zizo ↓, Marmoush O. ↑,
61', Trezeguet ↓, Saber M. ↑,
65', Osayi-Samuel B. ↓, Iwobi A. ↑,
73', Mostafa Mohamed ↓, Adel I. ↑,
87', Ogbu I. 🟨,
90+1', Chukwueze S. ↓, Ejuke C. ↑,
90+3', Ajayi S. ↓, Awaziem C. ↑,
Penalties (2 - 4)
1, Dele-Bashiru F. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Salah M. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Adams A. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Marmoush O. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Simon M. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Rabia R. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Iwobi A. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Saber M. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Lookman A. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Egypt won 2.

Now, both teams are in good form.

Nigeria will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Egypt: Abdelmaguid H. (Yellow Cards) Hamdi M. (Knee Injury) Salah M. (Rest)

There will not play in Nigeria: Bassey C. (Yellow Cards) Dessers C. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Egypt: Marmoush O. (Rest)

There are questionable in Nigeria: Onyeka F. (Rest)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Egypt won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:4. (average 0.7:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Egypt
Africa Cup of Nations
14.01.26	Senegal - Egypt	1:0 ✺
10.01.26	Egypt - Ivory Coast	3:2 ✺
05.01.26	Egypt - Benin	3:1 ET ✺
29.12.25	Angola - Egypt	0:0 ✺
26.12.25	Egypt - South Africa	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LWWTW
- Nigeria
Africa Cup of Nations
14.01.26	Nigeria - Morocco	0:1 penalties ✺
10.01.26	Algeria - Nigeria	0:2 ✺
05.01.26	Nigeria - Mozambique	4:0 ✺
30.12.25	Uganda - Nigeria	1:3 ✺
27.12.25	Nigeria - Tunisia	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Friendly
16.12.25	Egypt - Nigeria	2:1
Africa Cup of Nations
11.01.22	Nigeria - Egypt	1:0
Friendly
26.03.19	Nigeria - Egypt	1:0
Africa Cup of Nations
29.03.16	Egypt - Nigeria	1:0
25.03.16	Nigeria - Egypt	1:1
Friendly
12.04.12	Egypt - Nigeria	N/A

Egypt - Nigeria: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide