Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Round 14

Date: 14 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Ipurua (Eibar)


	Eibar C		Portugalete

	1	X	2
	7.5	4.65	1.31
	8.83	4.8	1.31
	8.44	4.66	1.33
	8.5	4.4	1.33
	9.2	4.6	1.29
	8	4.75	1.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.41 ↓ (8.42)	4.64 ↑ (4.51)	1.31 ↓ (1.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Eibar C
10.8%

Draw
19.6%

Portugalete
69.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

10.8%

20.2%

69%

Our Initial ML Estimation

10.4%

19.4%

71.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Eibar C have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Portugalete has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Eibar C than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portugalete than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Eibar C - Portugalete Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
38', 0 - 1, Perez Alvarez A. ⚽,
44', 🟥,
44', 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 4)
48', 0 - 2, ⚽,
49', 0 - 3, ⚽,
68', 0 - 4, ⚽,
85', 0 - 5, ⚽,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 1 in the zone Promotion).

Eibar C has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Portugalete is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Portugalete may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Portugalete is the obvious favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Eibar C won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Eibar C won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Eibar C
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
06.12.25	San Ignacio - Eibar C	1:0 ✺
22.11.25	Eibar C - Derio	1:1 ✺
15.11.25	Touring KE - Eibar C	1:0 ✺
08.11.25	Eibar C - Alavés C	2:5 ✺
01.11.25	Aurrerá de Vitoria - Eibar C	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LTLLL
- Club Portugalete
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
06.12.25	Portugalete - Añorga	3:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
02.12.25	Portugalete - Deportivo Alavés	0:3 ✺
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
22.11.25	Durango - Portugalete	1:1 ✺
16.11.25	Portugalete - Aretxabaleta	3:2 ✺
08.11.25	Zamudio - Portugalete	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
17.04.25	Portugalete - Eibar C	2:1
06.12.24	Eibar C - Portugalete	1:1

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