Match Info

Primera A - Clausura - Round 14

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Polideportivo Sur (Envigado)

Referee: Rivera H. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Mexico	Fanatiz
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2


	Envigado		Atlético Bucaramanga

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.25	1.8	Watch
	3.9	3.1	1.9
	4.7	3.25	1.82
	5.39	3.26	1.8
	1.00	1.00	1.11	Watch
	4.7	3.18	1.83	Watch
	4.1	3	1.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.08 ↑ (3.55)	2.86 ↓ (3.35)	1.74 ↓ (1.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Envigado
21%

Draw
29.9%

Atlético Bucaramanga
49.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.8%

27.4%

46.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.8%

26.3%

48.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Envigado has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Atlético Bucaramanga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Envigado than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Bucaramanga than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	27.3%	72.7%

Envigado - Atlético Bucaramanga Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Bucaramanga will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bucaramanga: 46.4% – 99%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Bucaramanga (votes: 3 - 50%). Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Montoya J. (G) 4. Uribe N. 28. Gamboa Valencia J. J. 30. Agron B. 27. Quejada J. 13. Soto T. 21. Lopez E. (C) 6. Palacio J. 26. Valencia Mosquera D. A. 31. Berrio F. 11. Garces J.	1. Quintana A. (G) 24. Duarte B. 2. Mena J. (C) 29. Henao C. 25. De Las Salas C. 6. Charrupi G. 20. Zarate A. 17. Gil Mosquera F. A. 10. Sambueza F. 7. Londono K. 27. Pons L.
Substitutes
80. Aristizabal J. 15. Cuervo S. 34. Diaz L. 8. Espana Alvarez R. C. 14. Hinestroza J. 3. Holguin J. 38. Marulanda M. 17. Ramirez N. 88. Tovar A. (G)	28. Flores L. 19. Gutierrez A. 8. Hinestroza F. 33. Medina G. 9. Moreno N. 14. Mosquera J. 12. Vasquez Caicedo L. E. (G)
Coaches
Orozco A.	Alvarez L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
3', 0 - 1, Sambueza F. ⚽, Duarte B. (A),
16', 0 - 2, Pons L. (Pen),
22', Henao C. 🟨,
22', Soto T. 🟨,
43', Uribe N. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Palacio J. ↓, Aristizabal J. ↑,
46', Uribe N. ↓, Cuervo S. ↑,
46', Valencia Mosquera D. A. ↓, Diaz L. ↑,
48', Agron B. 🟨,
49', Quejada J. 🟨,
54', 1 - 2, Garces J. (Pen),
63', Lopez E. 🟨,
69', Soto T. ↓, Ramirez N. ↑,
71', Charrupi G. ↓, Flores L. ↑,
71', Londono K. ↓, Moreno N. ↑,
72', Duarte B. ↓, Gutierrez A. ↑,
77', Gil Mosquera F. A. ↓, Mosquera J. ↑,
80', Gutierrez A. 🟨,
85', Garces J. ↓, Espana Alvarez R. C. ↑,
88', Cuervo S. 🟨,
90', Flores L. 🟨,
90+3', Pons L. ↓, Medina G. ↑,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Clausura ~ Quadrangular: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Envigado won 0.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Bucaramanga may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Bucaramanga is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Envigado won 5 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 21:25. (average 1.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Envigado won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 1.1:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Envigado FC
Colombian Primera A
28.09.25	América de Cali - Envigado	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Envigado - Alianza Valledupar	0:0 ✺
Colombian Copa
16.09.25	Millonarios - Envigado	0:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
13.09.25	Once Caldas - Envigado	1:0 ✺
07.09.25	Envigado - Rionegro Águilas	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.3 TTTLT
- Atlético Bucaramanga
Colombian Primera A
26.09.25	Fortaleza CEIF - Atlético Bucaramanga	2:1 ✺
19.09.25	Atlético Bucaramanga - Deportes Tolima	2:0 ✺
16.09.25	América de Cali - Atlético Bucaramanga	0:0 ✺
13.09.25	Atlético Nacional - Atlético Bucaramanga	0:1 ✺
09.09.25	Atlético Bucaramanga - Once Caldas	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.3 LWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
17.04.25	Atlético Bucaramanga - Envigado	1:0
05.10.24	Envigado - Atlético Bucaramanga	0:0
24.03.24	Atlético Bucaramanga - Envigado	3:1
14.07.23	Envigado - Atlético Bucaramanga	1:3
24.01.23	Atlético Bucaramanga - Envigado	0:0
19.08.22	Envigado - Atlético Bucaramanga	2:1
Colombian Copa
07.04.22	Atlético Bucaramanga - Envigado	3:0

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