The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Envigado 11.1%
Draw 20.8%
Atlético Nacional 68.2%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
17.1%
25.2%
57.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
16.3%
24%
60.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Envigado has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Envigado's form might have worsened.
Atlético Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.5%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Atlético Nacional's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Envigado than the current prediction. (+5.2%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Envigado, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Nacional than the current prediction. (-7.7%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Atlético Nacional, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
0%
11.1%
88.9%
Envigado - Atlético Nacional Predictions
Users Predictions:
Atlético Nacional will win
(8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%). Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
12. Escobar R. (G) 27. Uribe N. 28. Gamboa Valencia J. J. 29. Ramirez C. (C) 3. Holguin J. 6. Palacio J. 21. Lopez E. 15. Cuervo S. 26. Arcila D. 34. Diaz L. 11. Garces J.
1. Ospina D. (G) 6. Roman A. 23. Arias J. J. 16. Tesillo W. 13. Candido C. 8. Uribe M. 80. Zapata J. 18. Hinestroza M. 10. Cardona E. 30. Parra Atehortua K. 19. Viveros K.
Substitutes
70. Araujo J. 7. Dawson D. 14. Hinestroza J. 2. Palacios D. 17. Vargas A. 1. Villa M. (G)
3. Aguirre Tabares J. F. 11. Arce B. 27. Asprilla D. 21. Campuzano J. 15. Castillo H. (G) 20. Castro J. 9. Morelos A.
Coaches
Orozco A.
Gandolfi J.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
36', Arias J. J. 🟥,
42', Zapata J. 🟨,
44', Uribe N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Parra Atehortua K. ↓, Asprilla D. ↑,
46', Zapata J. ↓, Campuzano J. ↑,
62', Palacio J. ↓, Hinestroza J. ↑,
62', Cuervo S. ↓, Dawson D. ↑,
65', Viveros K. ↓, Morelos A. ↑,
69', Garces J. ↓, Araujo J. ↑,
76', Uribe M. ↓, Aguirre Tabares J. F. ↑,
80', Arcila D. ↓, Vargas A. ↑,
82', Roman A. ↓, Castro J. ↑,
89', Gamboa Valencia J. J. 🟨,
Preview
This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 16 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Quadrangular: )).
Last 5 head-to-head matches Envigado won 0.
Recent matches Envigado is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
Atlético Nacional is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
Envigado could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
In this match Atlético Nacional is the unquestionable favorite.
Last 20 head-to-head matches Envigado won 2 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 12 matches and goals 19:33 (average 1:1.7).
Including matches at home between the teams Envigado won 1 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 10:11 (average 1.1:1.2).
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Escobar R. (G) 
Uribe N. 
Candido C. 
Dawson D. 
Arce B. 
Gandolfi J. 
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