Match Info

Copa Colombia - First stage - Round 4

Date: 11 June 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau (Valledupar)


	Alianza Valledupar		Envigado

	1	X	2
	1.95	2.88	4.5	Watch
	2.4	2.6	3
	2.05	2.68	4.05	Watch
	2.25	2.58	4.06	Watch
	2.45	2.88	2.9
	1.94	2.91	4.75	Watch
	2.05	2.68	4.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↑ (1.68)	2.74 ↓ (3.02)	3.9 ↓ (5.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alianza Valledupar
42.8%

Draw
33.6%

Envigado
23.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.5%

30.3%

15.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.9%

29.5%

14.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alianza Valledupar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alianza Valledupar's form might have worsened.

Envigado has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Envigado's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Valledupar than the current prediction. (+13.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alianza Valledupar, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Envigado than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Envigado, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	26.7%	13.3%

Alianza Valledupar - Envigado Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Alianza will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%). Envigado will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 21.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alianza: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Alianza (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Envigado (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Envigado (1.64) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Alianza (1.80) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Alianza (votes: 6 - 60%). Envigado (votes: 3 - 30%). Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
10', 0 - 1, Diaz L. ⚽,
30', 1 - 1, Torres E. ⚽,
45+3', 1 - 2, Garces J. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
62', 2 - 2, Osorio J. ⚽,
83', 3 - 2, Osorio J. ⚽,
86', 3 - 3, Arcila D. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alianza won 2.

Alianza is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Envigado has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Envigado may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Alianza might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Alianza won 5 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 23:24. (average 1.2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Alianza won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:13. (average 1.3:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alianza Valledupar
Colombian Copa
08.06.25	Orsomarso - Alianza Valledupar	2:2 ✺
04.06.25	Alianza Valledupar - Rionegro Águilas	4:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
25.05.25	Alianza Valledupar - Independiente Santa Fe	6:1 ✺
17.05.25	Boyacá Chicó - Alianza Valledupar	2:1 ✺
11.05.25	Alianza Valledupar - Deportivo Cali	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 TWWLW
- Envigado FC
Colombian Copa
07.06.25	Envigado - Barranquilla	2:1 ✺
30.05.25	Orsomarso - Envigado	0:1 ✺
Colombian Primera A
24.05.25	Envigado - Llaneros SA	1:2 ✺
16.05.25	Millonarios - Envigado	1:0 ✺
10.05.25	Envigado - Rionegro Águilas	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
04.04.25	Alianza Valledupar - Envigado	1:2
11.08.24	Alianza Valledupar - Envigado	1:1
07.02.24	Envigado - Alianza Valledupar	1:2
10.08.23	Alianza Valledupar - Envigado	3:1
18.02.23	Envigado - Alianza Valledupar	0:0
17.07.22	Envigado - Alianza Valledupar	2:2
30.01.22	Alianza Valledupar - Envigado	2:2

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