Match Info

1. Lig - Round 11

Date: 19 October 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Esenler Stadium (Istanbul) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Kamalak B. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Asia	—	TOD
Turkey	20:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1 MAX, Digiturk, Tabii Spor 6, Tabii


	Erokspor		Mardin 1969

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.3	3.7	Watch
	1.95	3.20	3.30
	1.85	3.39	3.87	Watch
	1.93	3.4	4.29
	1.97	3.44	3.7	Watch
	1.91	3.25	4.2
	1.93	3.44	3.85	Watch
	1.85	3.35	3.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↓ (2.3)	3.35 ↑ (3.25)	3.83 ↑ (2.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Erokspor
48.4%

Draw
27.5%

Mardin 1969
24.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

39.9%

28.2%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.5%

27.9%

32.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Erokspor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Erokspor's performance.

Mardin 1969 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mardin 1969 might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Erokspor than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Erokspor that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mardin 1969 than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mardin 1969 could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Erokspor - Mardin 1969 Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Erokspor will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Mardin will win (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Canpolat E. (G) 70. Orak F. 21. Ozturk B. 4. Luccas Claro (C) 33. Alic E. 7. Janvier N. 11. Faye M. 8. Kanga G. 5. Okyar M. 17. Coban B. 9. Kanatsizkus K.	1. Kardesler E. (G) 17. Korkmaz E. 25. Sengul M. 15. Gezer U. (C) 3. Yardimci N. 16. Kabak A. 42. Alhassan B. 77. Taskan D. 8. Denic D. 10. Dimitrov Z. 9. Kayode O.
Substitutes
77. Bilazer H. 20. Buljubasic M. 34. Cetin E. (G) 53. Erdogan Y. 99. Gueye P. 6. Kacar T. 39. Kas E. 10. Niyaz R. 27. Yazgan F. 88. Zeqiri A.	11. Balat B. 7. Cetin S. 64. Dogan B. 70. Erol E. 29. Kahveci O. (G) 4. Karslioglu O. 33. Tasdemir E. 19. Uluk A. 47. Wilks M. 45. Yildirim O.
Coaches
Karaman H.	Petev I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
6', 1 - 0, Okyar M. ⚽, Orak F. (A),
28', Coban B. 🟨,
34', 1 - 1, Yardimci N. ⚽, Dimitrov Z. (A),
39', 2 - 1, Korkmaz E. (Own goal),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Taskan D. ↓, Wilks M. ↑,
46', Denic D. ↓, Tasdemir E. ↑,
46', Coban B. ↓, Erdogan Y. ↑,
51', 2 - 2, Wilks M. ⚽, Dimitrov Z. (A),
56', Faye M. 🟨,
58', Okyar M. ↓, Niyaz R. ↑,
58', Alic E. ↓, Zeqiri A. ↑,
58', Kanga G. ↓, Yazgan F. ↑,
75', Kanatsizkus K. ↓, Kas E. ↑,
77', 3 - 2, Faye M. ⚽, Orak F. (A),
82', Korkmaz E. ↓, Yildirim O. ↑,
85', Yazgan F. 🟨,
90', Orak F. 🟨,
90+3', 4 - 2, Zeqiri A. ⚽, Erdogan Y. (A),

Preview

A lower-table team faces a stern test hosting a top-ranking contender (ranked 17th in the Relegation and 5th in the Promotion - 1. Lig Playoffs - Quarter - finals).

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

Erokspor is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

Confirmed absences for Mardin: Aydin A. (Knee Injury) Kirboga U. (Inactive) Teklic T. (Yellow Cards).

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Erokspor has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 4:1 (averaging 2:0.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Erokspor against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 3:0 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Mardin 1969	12	6	3	3	16:11	5	21
15	Erokspor	12	2	6	4	12:16	-4	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Erokspor
Turkish First League
15.10.26	Manisa FK - Erokspor	1:1 ✺
10.10.26	İstanbulspor - Erokspor	0:1 ✺
19.09.26	Erokspor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	0:2 ✺
13.09.26	Bursaspor - Erokspor	2:2 ✺
07.09.26	Erokspor - Kayserispor	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 TWLTL
- Mardin 1969 SK
Turkish First League
15.10.26	Mardin 1969 - Fatih Karagümrükspor	1:0 ✺
11.10.26	Bursaspor - Mardin 1969	1:2 ✺
20.09.26	Mardin 1969 - Kayserispor	0:1 ✺
13.09.26	Igdirspor - Mardin 1969	1:0 ✺
07.09.26	Mardin 1969 - Bodrumspor	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Turkish 3 Lig Group 3
26.02.22	Erokspor - Mardin 1969	3:0
13.10.21	Mardin 1969 - Erokspor	1:1

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