Match Info

GERMANY: 3. Liga - Round 5

Date: 15 September 2024, Sunday

Location: Erzgebirgsstadion (Aue)

Referee: Heft F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	Onefootball app


	Erzgebirge Aue		Arminia Bielefeld

	1	X	2
	2.6	3.3	2.38
	2.65	3.3	2.5
	2.7	3.3	2.5
	2.85	3.45	2.63
	2.72	3.2	2.59	Watch
	2.5	3.4	2.4
	2.52	3.36	2.56
	2.7	3.3	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.66 ↑ (2.25)	3.33 ↓ (3.5)	2.51 ↓ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Erzgebirge Aue
35%

Draw
27.9%

Arminia Bielefeld
37.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.6%

26.7%

31.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

25.7%

30.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Erzgebirge Aue has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Erzgebirge Aue's form might have worsened.

Arminia Bielefeld has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Arminia Bielefeld's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Erzgebirge Aue than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Erzgebirge Aue, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arminia Bielefeld than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Arminia Bielefeld, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	10%	30%

Erzgebirge Aue - Arminia Bielefeld Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Aue will win (votes: 6 - 60%). Arminia will win (votes: 3 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aue: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mannel M. (C) 21. Burghardt M. 23. Barylla A. 19. Hoffmann T. 26. Jakob K. 10. Pepic M. 30. Loune A. 8. Clausen M. 14. Tashchy B. 34. Stefaniak M. 15. Bar M.	1. Kersken J. (G) 2. Hagmann F. 19. Grosser M. 3. Felix J. 4. Oppie L. 6. Corboz M. (C) 21. Russo S. 13. Kunze L. 25. Mizuta K. 39. Becker A. 17. Biankadi M.
Substitutes
20. Fabisch J. 17. Fallmann P. 18. Kallenbach W. 22. Lord L. (G) 24. Nkansah S. 29. Rosenlocher L. 12. Schadlich F. 7. Seitz S. 11. Sijaric O.	7. Kania J. 36. Lukas J. 18. Oppermann L. (G) 37. Sarenren Bazee N. J. 23. Schneider L. 8. Schreck S. 22. Schroers M. 38. Worl M. 30. Young I.
Coaches
Dotchev P.	Kniat M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', Kniat M. 🟨,
27', Grosser M. 🟨,
28', 1 - 0, Stefaniak M. (Pen),
37', Oppie L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Mizuta K. ↓, Young I. ↑,
46', Biankadi M. ↓, Sarenren Bazee N. J. ↑,
51', Jakob K. ↓, Rosenlocher L. ↑,
53', Kunze L. ↓, Worl M. ↑,
54', Felix J. ↓, Schroers M. ↑,
56', 1 - 1, Russo S. ⚽,
62', 1 - 2, Corboz M. ⚽, Becker A. (A),
64', Clausen M. ↓, Seitz S. ↑,
64', Burghardt M. ↓, Fallmann P. ↑,
67', Young I. 🟨,
78', 1 - 3, Worl M. ⚽, Schroers M. (A),
85', Stefaniak M. ↓, Kallenbach W. ↑,
85', Tashchy B. ↓, Sijaric O. ↑,
90+2', Hagmann F. ↓, Schneider L. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Aue won 1.

Right away both teams are in a satisfying form.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Aue won 2 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 10-15.

Including matches at home between the teams Aue won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Erzgebirge Aue
German 3 Bundesliga
31.08.24	Alemannia Aachen - Erzgebirge Aue	1:2 ✺
23.08.24	Erzgebirge Aue - Dynamo Dresden	2:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
17.08.24	Erzgebirge Aue - Borussia Mönchengladbach	1:3 ✺
German 3 Bundesliga
10.08.24	Osnabrück - Erzgebirge Aue	0:2 ✺
03.08.24	Erzgebirge Aue - Hannover II	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.6 WWLWW
- Arminia Bielefeld
German 3 Bundesliga
31.08.24	Arminia Bielefeld - Sandhausen	1:1 ✺
24.08.24	Rot-Weiß Essen - Arminia Bielefeld	0:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
17.08.24	Arminia Bielefeld - Hannover	2:0 ✺
German 3 Bundesliga
10.08.24	Arminia Bielefeld - Borussia Dortmund II	1:0 ✺
04.08.24	Energie Cottbus - Arminia Bielefeld	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

German 3 Bundesliga
04.05.24	Erzgebirge Aue - Arminia Bielefeld	1:0
02.12.23	Arminia Bielefeld - Erzgebirge Aue	2:2
German 2 Bundesliga
31.01.20	Erzgebirge Aue - Arminia Bielefeld	0:0
17.08.19	Arminia Bielefeld - Erzgebirge Aue	3:1
05.04.19	Arminia Bielefeld - Erzgebirge Aue	2:1
27.10.18	Erzgebirge Aue - Arminia Bielefeld	1:0
14.04.18	Arminia Bielefeld - Erzgebirge Aue	2:0

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