Match Info

3. Liga - Round 9

Date: 30 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: New Tivoli (Aachen)

Referee: Behrens K. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub 6
Germany	Magenta Sport
Usa	ESPN 3, ESPN App
World	Onefootball


	Alemannia Aachen		Erzgebirge Aue

	1	X	2
	2	3.9	3.3	Watch
	2.02	3.55	3.25
	2.08	3.7	3.62
	1.86	3.76	3.70	Watch
	1.98	3.86	3.27	Watch
	2.03	3.5	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↑ (1.95)	3.71 ↑ (3.5)	3.41 ↓ (3.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alemannia Aachen
47.1%

Draw
25.3%

Erzgebirge Aue
27.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.3%

26.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.9%

22.9%

30.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alemannia Aachen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Erzgebirge Aue has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alemannia Aachen than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alemannia Aachen that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Erzgebirge Aue than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	5.6%	5.6%

Alemannia Aachen - Erzgebirge Aue Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Aachen (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Aue (votes: 2 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Aachen (2.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Alemannia Aachen will win (16 of 18 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.37% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Aachen (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Aue (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Olschowsky J. (G) 4. Meyer F. 28. Wiebe D. 25. Yarbrough L. 19. Heister F. 8. Bahn B. (C) 10. Gaudino G. 7. Scepanik L. 44. Castelle N. H. 23. Gindorf L. 27. Schroers M.	1. Mannel M. (G) 17. Fallmann P. 13. Majetschak E. 25. Zobel T. 23. Barylla A. 20. Fabisch J. 11. Uhlmann E. 8. Clausen M. 19. Guttau J. 34. Stefaniak M. 39. Schmid M.
Substitutes
36. Ademi F. 37. da Silva Kiala J. 14. Elekwa E. 22. Hendriks T. (G) 20. Richter M. 5. Strujic S. 9. Sulejmani V. 33. Wegmann M. 18. Wriedt K.	9. Bornschein R. 24. Ehlers J. 10. Gunther-Schmidt J. 22. Lord L. (G) 37. Seidel P. 5. Simnica L. 14. Tashchy B. 7. Weinhauer E.
Coaches
Muzzicato B.	Hartel J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
30', Wiebe D. ↓, da Silva Kiala J. ↑,
34', 0 - 1, Fallmann P. ⚽, Guttau J. (A),
45+1', Stefaniak M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Schmid M. ↓, Gunther-Schmidt J. ↑,
53', Schroers M. 🟨,
61', Castelle N. H. ↓, Ademi F. ↑,
62', Gaudino G. ↓, Elekwa E. ↑,
65', Guttau J. ↓, Simnica L. ↑,
66', Uhlmann E. 🟨,
73', Schroers M. ↓, Sulejmani V. ↑,
73', Heister F. ↓, Strujic S. ↑,
74', Clausen M. ↓, Ehlers J. ↑,
85', Barylla A. ↓, Tashchy B. ↑,
86', Zobel T. 🟨,
90+2', Simnica L. 🟨,
90+7', da Silva Kiala J. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 13 and 18 in the zone Relegation).

Aachen has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Aue is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Aachen will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Aachen won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Aachen won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alemannia Aachen
German 3 Bundesliga
27.09.25	Schweinfurt - Alemannia Aachen	1:5 ✺
20.09.25	Alemannia Aachen - Waldhof Mannheim	3:2 ✺
16.09.25	Verl - Alemannia Aachen	2:1 ✺
13.09.25	Alemannia Aachen - Ulm 1846	1:3 ✺
31.08.25	Rot-Weiß Essen - Alemannia Aachen	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.9 WWLLW
- Erzgebirge Aue
German 3 Bundesliga
27.09.25	Erzgebirge Aue - 1860 München	2:0 ✺
20.09.25	Osnabrück - Erzgebirge Aue	3:1 ✺
17.09.25	Energie Cottbus - Erzgebirge Aue	2:1 ✺
13.09.25	Erzgebirge Aue - Viktoria Köln	0:3 ✺
30.08.25	Saarbrücken - Erzgebirge Aue	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

German 3 Bundesliga
08.02.25	Erzgebirge Aue - Alemannia Aachen	1:1
31.08.24	Alemannia Aachen - Erzgebirge Aue	1:2

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