Match Info

3. Liga - Round 11

Date: 17 October 2025, Friday

Location: Erzgebirgsstadion (Aue)

Referee: Kabalakli C. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Erzgebirge Aue		Waldhof Mannheim

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.4	2.45	Watch
	2.3	3.5	2.78
	2.83	3.6	2.5
	2.61	3.41	2.51	Watch
	2.35	3.42	2.76	Watch
	2.39	3.4	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 ↑ (2.38)	3.46 ↑ (3.4)	2.62 ↓ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Erzgebirge Aue
37%

Draw
27.1%

Waldhof Mannheim
35.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.8%

27.2%

34%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

27.1%

33.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Erzgebirge Aue has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Waldhof Mannheim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Erzgebirge Aue than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Waldhof Mannheim than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	20%	40%

Erzgebirge Aue - Waldhof Mannheim Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Aue will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Waldhof will win (votes: 4 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aue: 9.6% – 70.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Aue (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 4.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mannel M. (G) 17. Fallmann P. 13. Majetschak E. 25. Zobel T. 37. Seidel P. 20. Fabisch J. 5. Simnica L. 19. Guttau J. 8. Clausen M. 34. Stefaniak M. 39. Schmid M.	30. Hawryluk L. (G) 24. Klunter L. 6. Hoffmann N. 21. Rieckmann J. 15. Karbstein M. 22. Sietan J. 17. Abifade S. 38. Masca 10. Ferati A. 32. Okpala K. 9. Lohkemper F.
Substitutes
9. Bornschein R. 24. Ehlers J. 10. Gunther-Schmidt J. 27. Hetzsch F. 22. Lord L. (G) 16. Malone R. 12. Schimkus L. 14. Tashchy B. 7. Weinhauer E.	13. Boyd T. 14. Iwe E. 35. Mendes D. 28. Michel D. 16. Niemann J. (G) 4. Sechelmann T. 7. Shipnoski N. 8. Thalhammer M. 18. Yigit S.
Coaches
Hartel J.	Holtz L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', 0 - 1, Hoffmann N. ⚽, Ferati A. (A),
42', Zobel T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Schmid M. ↓, Gunther-Schmidt J. ↑,
48', Majetschak E. 🟨,
53', Clausen M. 🟨,
66', Masca ↓, Shipnoski N. ↑,
67', 0 - 2, Ferati A. ⚽,
72', Guttau J. ↓, Tashchy B. ↑,
72', Clausen M. ↓, Ehlers J. ↑,
72', Seidel P. ↓, Malone R. ↑,
74', Abifade S. ↓, Yigit S. ↑,
80', Simnica L. ↓, Bornschein R. ↑,
83', Ferati A. ↓, Sechelmann T. ↑,
84', Shipnoski N. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 16 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aue won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Aue won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:10. (average 0.7:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Aue won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:3. (average 1.3:0.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Erzgebirge Aue - the odds 2.38 are the expected chance of winning is 38.83%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Erzgebirge Aue
German 3 Bundesliga
05.10.25	Erzgebirge Aue - Rot-Weiß Essen	2:2 ✺
30.09.25	Alemannia Aachen - Erzgebirge Aue	0:1 ✺
27.09.25	Erzgebirge Aue - 1860 München	2:0 ✺
20.09.25	Osnabrück - Erzgebirge Aue	3:1 ✺
17.09.25	Energie Cottbus - Erzgebirge Aue	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 TWWLL
- Waldhof Mannheim
German 3 Bundesliga
04.10.25	Waldhof Mannheim - Osnabrück	1:4 ✺
30.09.25	TSV Havelse - Waldhof Mannheim	2:3 ✺
27.09.25	Waldhof Mannheim - Rot-Weiß Essen	6:1 ✺
20.09.25	Alemannia Aachen - Waldhof Mannheim	3:2 ✺
17.09.25	Waldhof Mannheim - VfB Stuttgart II	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

German 3 Bundesliga
16.03.25	Erzgebirge Aue - Waldhof Mannheim	0:1
18.10.24	Waldhof Mannheim - Erzgebirge Aue	3:0
18.05.24	Erzgebirge Aue - Waldhof Mannheim	2:0
16.12.23	Waldhof Mannheim - Erzgebirge Aue	3:0
10.02.23	Erzgebirge Aue - Waldhof Mannheim	2:1
10.08.22	Waldhof Mannheim - Erzgebirge Aue	1:0
Club Friendly
30.07.16	Erzgebirge Aue - Waldhof Mannheim	1:1

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