Match Info

SPAIN: LALIGA - ROUND 38

Date: 4 June 2023, Sunday

Location: RCDE Stadium (Cornella de Llobregat)

Referee: Grado C. S. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Optus Sport
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Croatia	Arena Sport
France	beIN Sports Max
Greece	Nova Sports
Portugal	Eleven Sports
Serbia	Arena Sport
United-kingdom	Viaplay


	Espanyol		Almería

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.6	2.63	Watch
	2.55	3.6	2.6
	2.5	3.85	2.65
	2.5	3.6	2.68
	2.51	3.75	2.76
	2.3	3.4	2.5
	2.55	3.72	2.57	Watch
	2.48	3.65	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↓ (3.39)	3.65 ↓ (3.94)	2.64 ↑ (1.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Espanyol
38.2%

Draw
26%

Almería
35.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28%

24%

48%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.4%

23.5%

49.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Espanyol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Espanyol's performance.

Almería has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Almería might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Espanyol than the current prediction. (-10.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Espanyol that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Almería than the current prediction. (+13.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Almería could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
39.1%	23.9%	37%

Espanyol - Almería Predictions

Users Predictions: 46 users predict this event. Espanyol will win (votes: 18 - 39.1%). Almería will win (votes: 17 - 37%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 23.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Espanyol: 25% – 53.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Garcia J. (G) 18. Pierre-Gabriel R. 23. Montes C. 5. Calero F. 14. Olivan B. 20. Exposito 10. Darder S. 7. Puado J. 6. Suarez D. 21. Melamed N. 17. Braithwaite M.	13. Martinez F. (G) 17. Pozo A. 19. Ely R. 22. Babic S. 20. Centelles A. 5. Robertone L. 23. Costa S. 3. Melero G. 14. Lazaro 9. Toure E. B. 10. Embarba A.
Substitutes
8. Bare K. 25. Fernandez A. (G) 2. Gil O. 15. Gragera J. 9. Joselu 30. Koleosho L. 16. Lazo J. C. 13. Pacheco F. (G) 27. Sanchez R. 28. Simo 22. Vidal A. 12. Vinicius Souza	15. Akieme S. 6. de la Hoz C. 4. Eguaras I. 25. Fuoli D. (G) 1. Marino D. (G) 24. Mendes H. 29. Pena M. 8. Portillo F. 18. Puigmal A. 7. Ramazani L. 27. Sanca M. 11. Sousa D.
Coaches
Garcia L.	Rubi

Preview

Espanyol has the most likely position - 19 (87.71%), project points - 38, currently - 36, already of relegated.

Almería has the most likely position - 17 (22.86%), project points - 41, currently - 40, a chance of relegated (18%), not chance of qualify for ucl.

This event has quality 58, importance 41, match rating 49. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Espanyol won 3.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Almería could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

There will not play in Espanyol: Gomez S. (Muscle Injury) Gori (Injury) Pedrosa A. (Injury)

There will not play in Almería: Kaiky (Muscle Injury) Leo Baptistao (Achilles Tendon Injury) Suarez L. (Red Card) Svidersky M. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Almería: Chumi (Knee Injury)

Last 8 head-to-head matches Espanyol won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 13-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Espanyol won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RCD Espanyol
Spanish LaLiga
28.05.23	Valencia - Espanyol	2:2 ✺
24.05.23	Espanyol - Atlético Madrid	3:3 ✺
21.05.23	Rayo Vallecano - Espanyol	1:2 ✺
14.05.23	Espanyol - Barcelona	2:4 ✺
04.05.23	Sevilla - Espanyol	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 TTWLL
- UD Almería
Spanish LaLiga
28.05.23	Almería - Valladolid	0:0 ✺
23.05.23	Real Sociedad - Almería	1:0 ✺
20.05.23	Almería - Mallorca	3:0 ✺
13.05.23	Osasuna - Almería	3:1 ✺
02.05.23	Almería - Elche	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
27.01.23	Almería - Espanyol	3:1
Spanish LaLiga2
19.04.21	Almería - Espanyol	1:1
20.12.20	Espanyol - Almería	2:1
Club Friendly
05.09.20	Almería - Espanyol	0:4
Spanish LaLiga
25.01.15	Espanyol - Almería	3:0
23.08.14	Almería - Espanyol	1:1
27.04.14	Espanyol - Almería	1:2

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