Match Info

SPAIN: LALIGA - ROUND 19

Date: 4 January 2024, Thursday

Location: Estadio El Sadar (Pamplona)

Referee: Grado C. S. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Optus Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport, SportKlub
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Croatia	Arena Sport, SportKlub
Cyprus	PrimeTel
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Urheilu
France	beIN Sports Max
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports
Poland	Canal+ Sport 5
Portugal	Eleven Sports
Romania	Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 1
Serbia	Arena Sport, SportKlub
Slovenia	Arena Sport, SportKlub
Sweden	TV4


	Osasuna		Almería

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.8	5	Watch
	1.7	3.8	4.8
	1.7	4	5	Watch
	1.72	3.95	5.21
	1.71	3.92	5.21
	1.65	3.9	4.75
	1.74	4.07	5.14	Watch
	1.66	4.1	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↑ (1.67)	3.94 ↓ (3.99)	5.04 ↑ (4.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Osasuna
56.6%

Draw
24.4%

Almería
19.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.9%

23.8%

19.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.7%

20%

23%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Osasuna has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Almería has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Osasuna than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Osasuna that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Almería than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.7%	5.6%	3.7%

Osasuna - Almería Predictions

Users Predictions: Osasuna will win (98 of 108 users predict this - 90.74%).
Confidence interval (95%): 85.27% – 96.21%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Herrera S. (G) 12. Areso J. 5. Garcia D. (C) 24. Catena A. 15. Pena R. 7. Moncayola J. 34. Munoz I. 10. Oroz A. 9. Avila C. 17. Budimir A. 16. Gomez M.	25. Maximiano L. (G) 18. Pubill M. 22. Montes C. 3. Gonzalez E. 15. Akieme S. 5. Robertone L. (C) 6. Lopy D. 10. Embarba A. 19. Arribas S. 7. Ramazani L. 12. Leo Baptistao
Substitutes
20. Arnaiz J. M. 11. Barja K. 8. Brasanac D. 3. Cruz J. 13. Fernandez A. (G) 14. Garcia R. 4. Garcia U. 28. Herrando J. 19. Ibanez P. 23. Raul 6. Torro L. 2. Vidal N.	20. Centelles A. 21. Chumi 28. Fettal R. 2. Kaiky 14. Lazaro 1. Marino D. (G) 13. Martinez F. (G) 29. Milovanovic M. 26. Pena M. 17. Pozo A. 8. Puigmal A. 33. Svidersky M.
Coaches
Arrasate J.	Garitano G.

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 12 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Osasuna won 4.

Recent matches Osasuna is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Almería is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Almería could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Osasuna is a favorite.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Osasuna won 7 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 14-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Osasuna won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 8-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Osasuna
Spanish LaLiga
21.12.23	Mallorca - Osasuna	3:2 ✺
15.12.23	Osasuna - Rayo Vallecano	1:0 ✺
10.12.23	Cádiz - Osasuna	1:1 ✺
02.12.23	Osasuna - Real Sociedad	1:1 ✺
26.11.23	Villarreal - Osasuna	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWTTL
- UD Almería
Spanish LaLiga
20.12.23	Barcelona - Almería	3:2 ✺
17.12.23	Almería - Mallorca	0:0 ✺
10.12.23	Atlético Madrid - Almería	2:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
06.12.23	Barbastro - Almería	1:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
03.12.23	Almería - Betis	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
13.05.23	Osasuna - Almería	3:1
12.09.22	Almería - Osasuna	0:1
Spanish Copa del Rey
27.01.21	Almería - Osasuna	1:0 penalties
Spanish LaLiga2
26.01.19	Almería - Osasuna	0:1
08.09.18	Osasuna - Almería	3:1
10.02.18	Almería - Osasuna	0:1
16.09.17	Osasuna - Almería	2:1

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