Match Info

PORTUGAL: Campeonato de Portugal - Group D - Round 23

Date: 16 March 2025, Sunday


	Estrela Vendas Novas		Fabril do Barreiro

	1	X	2
	4.1	3.2	1.78
	11	4.4	1.28
	12.6	4.7	1.24
	11	4.4	1.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	9.68 ↑ (4.09)	4.18 ↑ (3.25)	1.4 ↓ (1.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Estrela Vendas Novas
9.8%

Draw
22.6%

Fabril do Barreiro
67.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.2%

27.9%

49.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.1%

27.7%

50.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estrela Vendas Novas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Estrela Vendas Novas's form might have worsened.

Fabril do Barreiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Fabril do Barreiro's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estrela Vendas Novas than the current prediction. (+12.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Estrela Vendas Novas, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fabril do Barreiro than the current prediction. (-17.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Fabril do Barreiro, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Estrela Vendas Novas - Fabril do Barreiro Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
3', 0 - 1, Mendonca C. ⚽,
20', 0 - 2, Mendonca C. ⚽,
33', 0 - 3, Fernandes M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
62', 1 - 3, ⚽,
80', 1 - 4, ⚽,

Preview

This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 14 in the zone Relegation and 12 in the zone Relegation).

Estrela Vendas Novas is Relegated to

Estrela Vendas Novas has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Fabril do Barreiro is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Fabril do Barreiro is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Estrela Vendas Novas won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Estrela Vendas Novas
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
09.03.25	Operário - Estrela Vendas Novas	2:1 ✺
02.03.25	Estrela Vendas Novas - Lusitano GC	0:3 ✺
23.02.25	Serpa - Estrela Vendas Novas	2:1 ✺
16.02.25	Estrela Vendas Novas - Moura	0:0 ✺
09.02.25	Amora - Estrela Vendas Novas	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLTL
- Fabril do Barreiro
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
09.03.25	Fabril do Barreiro - Barreirense	1:1 ✺
02.03.25	Fabril do Barreiro - Operário	1:0 ✺
23.02.25	Lusitano GC - Fabril do Barreiro	4:0 ✺
16.02.25	Fabril do Barreiro - Serpa	0:0 ✺
09.02.25	Moura - Fabril do Barreiro	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 TWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
30.11.24	Fabril do Barreiro - Estrela Vendas Novas	3:1

Estrela Vendas Novas - Fabril do Barreiro: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide