Match Info

PORTUGAL: Campeonato de Portugal - Group D - Round 13

Date: 5 January 2025, Sunday


	Estrela da Amadora B		Lusitano GC

	1	X	2
	4.2	3.3	1.71
	4.5	3.35	1.72
	4.5	3.4	1.7
	4.58	3.32	1.73
	4.5	3.35	1.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.46 ↓ (4.83)	3.34 ↓ (3.75)	1.72 ↑ (1.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Estrela da Amadora B
20.3%

Draw
27%

Lusitano GC
52.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.8%

24.2%

57%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.3%

23.6%

58.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estrela da Amadora B has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Lusitano GC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estrela da Amadora B than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lusitano GC than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lusitano GC could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Estrela da Amadora B - Lusitano GC Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', 0 - 1, Aguas M. ⚽,
41', 1 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
64', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

Watch a game between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a team which is a leader now (ranked 10 in the zone Relegation and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Campeonato de Portugal ~ Promotion Group).

Recent matches Estrela B is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Lusitano GC is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

In this match Lusitano GC is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Estrela da Amadora B
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
15.12.24	Serpa - Estrela da Amadora B	3:2 ✺
07.12.24	Estrela da Amadora B - Moura	2:2 ✺
30.11.24	Amora - Estrela da Amadora B	2:1 ✺
17.11.24	Operário Ferroviario - Estrela da Amadora B	0:1 ✺
10.11.24	Estrela da Amadora B - Lagoa	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LTLWT
- Lusitano GC
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
15.12.24	Lusitano GC - Sintrense	2:0 ✺
08.12.24	Louletano - Lusitano GC	2:3 ✺
30.11.24	Lusitano GC - Comércio e Indústria	4:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
23.11.24	Lusitano GC - AVS	3:2 ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
10.11.24	Moncarapachense - Lusitano GC	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.2 WWWWL

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