Match Info

PORTUGAL: Taça de Portugal - 1/16-finals

Date: 23 November 2024, Saturday

Location: Campo Estrela (Evora)


	Lusitano GC		AVS

	1	X	2
	8	4	1.42
	6.5	3.9	1.43
	7.5	4.33	1.42
	6.8	4.38	1.44
	6.49	4.42	1.41	Watch
	7	4.2	1.4
	7.18	4.4	1.43
	7	4.33	1.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.06 ↑ (7.04)	4.25 ↑ (3.75)	1.42 ↓ (1.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lusitano GC
13.1%

Draw
21.8%

AVS
65.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13%

24.4%

62.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.7%

20.2%

51.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lusitano GC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

AVS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lusitano GC than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AVS than the current prediction. (-13.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for AVS, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Lusitano GC - AVS Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Marcelo Valverde (G) 10. Aguas M. 6. Andrade M. 30. Davou S. 88. Juah J. 9. Lopes D. 7. Lopes M. 5. Palancha T. 25. Pinto J. 4. Santana C. 21. Soares M.	93. Simao (G) 12. Assuncao G. A. 2. Fonseca F. 15. Grau J. 24. Kiki 10. Lopes V. 18. Nene 20. Ribeiro R. 6. Roux B. 5. Teixeira J. 11. Tunde Akinsola
Substitutes
27. Alex 8. Baptista T. . Delgado J. 15. Kenidy 36. Lima T. 22. Martins D. 37. Monteiro R. 20. Santos A. 17. Sousa A.	8. Aburjania G. 9. Kamate I. 22. Leo Alaba 47. Lucca J. 16. Mena Y. . Rodriguez N. 7. Silva L. 88. Trigueira P. (G) 27. Veiga E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
19', 1 - 0, Lopes D. ⚽,
23', Grau J. 🟨,
31', Simao 🟨,
33', 2 - 0, Lopes M. (Pen),
41', 2 - 1, Nene (Pen),
45+4', Marcelo Valverde 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Tunde Akinsola ↓, Kamate I. ↑,
46', Kiki ↓, Veiga E. ↑,
46', Grau J. ↓, Silva L. ↑,
57', Assuncao G. A. 🟨,
57', Assuncao G. A. 🟨,
62', Ribeiro R. ↓, Lucca J. ↑,
64', 3 - 1, Lopes D. ⚽,
68', Davou S. ↓, Baptista T. ↑,
68', Juah J. ↓, Santos A. ↑,
80', Lopes M. ↓, Sousa A. ↑,
90+4', 3 - 2, Ze Luis ⚽,

Preview

Lusitano GC is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

AVS is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Lusitano GC could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match AVS is indisputable favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lusitano GC
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
10.11.24	Moncarapachense - Lusitano GC	1:0 ✺
03.11.24	Lusitano GC - Estrela Vendas Novas	4:0 ✺
27.10.24	Fabril do Barreiro - Lusitano GC	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
20.10.24	Lusitano GC - Estoril Praia	1:0 penalties ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
06.10.24	Lusitano GC - Operário Ferroviario	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 LWTWW
- AVS Futebol SAD
Club Friendly
14.11.24	Valladolid - AVS	2:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
09.11.24	Estoril Praia - AVS	0:0 ✺
03.11.24	AVS - Famalicão	2:3 ✺
28.10.24	AVS - Porto	0:5 ✺
Taça de Portugal
20.10.24	Os Sandinenses - AVS	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LTLLW

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