Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 31

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Ciudad de Caseros (Buenos Aires)


	Estudiantes de Caseros		San Miguel

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.00	4.75
	1.88	2.90	4.50
	1.76	3.00	4.90	Watch
	1.97	2.90	5.26
	1.86	2.99	5.1	Watch
	1.90	2.85	5.20
	1.83	2.78	5.00
	1.87	2.90	4.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↑ (1.83)	2.92 ↓ (3.05)	4.9 ↓ (5.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Estudiantes de Caseros
49.5%

Draw
31.7%

San Miguel
18.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51%

30.6%

18.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6%

29.7%

17.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estudiantes de Caseros has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

San Miguel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estudiantes de Caseros than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Miguel than the current prediction. (-1%)

Estudiantes de Caseros - San Miguel Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - CA Estudiantes (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. CA Estudiantes (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lungarzo J. (G) 4. Bernardi B. 2. Benitez J. 6. Albarracin M. 3. Squie T. 7. Dure F. 5. Melo R. 11. Acosta E. 10. Sena F. 8. Rostagno D. 9. Acosta M.	1. Sappa D. (G) 4. Adin D. 2. Cardozo F. 5. Ramirez I. (C) 6. Ceceri K. 3. Perez L. 8. Desabato L. 10. Ferrero J. 11. De la Cruz E. 7. Brochero L. 9. Delgado L.
Substitutes
20. Almiron E. 14. Barca G. 13. Berizovsky A. 18. Camacho S. 17. Nunez M. 15. Nunez T. 16. Sanchez de Leon B. 19. Vera I. 12. Vila F. (G)	13. Aguirre F. 17. Almeida F. 15. Cruz A. 18. Diaz T. 20. Jerez T. 12. Ledesma Reynoso M. (G) 19. Oses M. 14. Renteria D. 16. Serra M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Delgado L. 🟨,
24', Melo R. 🟨,
43', Albarracin M. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
49', 0 - 1, Delgado L. ⚽, De la Cruz E. (A),
56', Albarracin M. ↓, Camacho S. ↑,
56', Acosta M. ↓, Vera I. ↑,
56', Acosta E. ↓, Almiron E. ↑,
63', De la Cruz E. ↓, Cruz A. ↑,
69', Cruz A. 🟨,
69', 1 - 1, Rostagno D. ⚽, Vera I. (A),
72', Brochero L. 🟨,
76', Adin D. ↓, Serra M. ↑,
76', Desabato L. ↓, Diaz T. ↑,
81', 2 - 1, Vera I. (Penalty Awarded),
83', Melo R. ↓, Sanchez de Leon B. ↑,
83', Dure F. ↓, Berizovsky A. ↑,
86', Ramirez I. ↓, Almeida F. ↑,
87', Brochero L. ↓, Jerez T. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table side takes on an opponent fighting to pull away from the danger zone (ranked 7th in the Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Playoffs and 16th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, CA Estudiantes won 1.

CA Estudiantes has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

San Miguel is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

In this matchup, CA Estudiantes is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 7 head-to-head meetings, CA Estudiantes has recorded 2 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 7:5 (averaging 1:0.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for CA Estudiantes against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with 5:1 goals (averaging 1.7:0.3 per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Estudiantes de Caseros
Argentinian Primera Nacional
19.09.26	San Telmo - Estudiantes de Caseros	0:1 ✺
13.09.26	Estudiantes de Caseros - Acassuso	1:0 ✺
06.09.26	Chaco For Ever - Estudiantes de Caseros	1:0 ✺
30.08.26	Estudiantes de Caseros - Ferro Carril Oeste	2:2 ✺
22.08.26	Central Norte - Estudiantes de Caseros	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWLTL
- CA San Miguel
Argentinian Primera Nacional
19.09.26	San Miguel - All Boys	1:1 ✺
13.09.26	Los Andes - San Miguel	1:1 ✺
06.09.26	San Miguel - Godoy Cruz	1:2 ✺
30.08.26	Deportivo Morón - San Miguel	2:1 ✺
26.08.26	Chaco For Ever - San Miguel	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 TTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
09.05.26	San Miguel - Estudiantes de Caseros	1:1
29.06.24	Estudiantes de Caseros - San Miguel	1:1
10.02.24	San Miguel - Estudiantes de Caseros	0:0
Argentinian Primera B
14.04.19	San Miguel - Estudiantes de Caseros	0:1
04.11.18	Estudiantes de Caseros - San Miguel	0:0
14.03.18	San Miguel - Estudiantes de Caseros	3:0
18.10.17	Estudiantes de Caseros - San Miguel	4:0

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