Match Info

Premier League - Round 3

Date: 6 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Hill Dickinson Stadium (Liverpool)

Referee: Brooks J. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Everton		Manchester United

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.80	1.90
	3.60	3.75	1.93
	3.70	3.80	2.00
	3.79	4.01	1.97
	3.54	3.87	2.04	Watch
	3.70	3.90	1.94
	4.09	3.89	1.89	Watch
	3.70	3.85	1.90
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.73 ↑ (3.06)	3.86 ↑ (3.51)	1.95 ↓ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Everton
25.7%

Draw
24.9%

Manchester United
49.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.9%

27%

42%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.4%

27.4%

42.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Everton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Everton's form might have worsened.

Manchester United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Manchester United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Everton than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manchester United than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Manchester United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.2%	27.3%	51.5%

Everton - Manchester United Predictions

Users Predictions: 33 users predict this event. Everton will win (votes: 7 - 21.2%). Man Utd will win (votes: 17 - 51.5%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Man Utd: 34.4% – 68.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Everton (votes: 2 - 40%). Man Utd (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Man Utd (1.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (1.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Everton (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - under (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Everton (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Man Utd (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pickford J. (G) 34. Rohl M. 6. Tarkowski J. (C) 4. Branthwaite J. 16. Mykolenko V. 45. Armstrong H. 37. Garner J. 22. Johnson B. 8. Dewsbury-Hall K. 19. George T. 11. Barry T.	1. Lammens S. (G) 2. Dalot D. 5. Maguire H. 6. Martinez Li. 23. Shaw L. 18. Tielemans Y. 37. Mainoo K. 19. Mbeumo B. 8. Fernandes B. (C) 9. Rashford M. 10. Cunha M.
Substitutes
24. Alcaraz C. 20. Dibling T. 58. Graham B. 10. Grealish J. 30. Hackney H. 5. Keane M. 2. Maitland-Niles A. 15. O'Brien J. 12. Travers M. (G)	17. Andrey Santos 12. Darlow K. (G) 13. Dorgu P. 26. Heaven A. 3. Mazraoui N. 7. Mount M. 30. Sesko B. 15. Yoro L. 11. Zirkzee J.
Coaches
Moyes D.	Carrick M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
13', Armstrong H. 🟨,
34', Johnson B. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', 0 - 1, Mbeumo B. ⚽, Mainoo K. (A),
62', Shaw L. 🟨,
64', Rohl M. 🟨,
66', Johnson B. ↓, Grealish J. ↑,
70', Rashford M. ↓, Dorgu P. ↑,
70', Cunha M. ↓, Sesko B. ↑,
75', Rohl M. ↓, Hackney H. ↑,
77', Garner J. ↓, Maitland-Niles A. ↑,
79', Maguire H. 🟨,
81', Dalot D. 🟨,
83', 1 - 1, George T. ⚽, Hackney H. (A),
84', Mainoo K. ↓, Andrey Santos ↑,
84', Dalot D. ↓, Yoro L. ↑,
88', 1 - 2, Sesko B. ⚽, Shaw L. (A),
90+1', Shaw L. ↓, Mazraoui N. ↑,
90+6', 2 - 2, Maitland-Niles A. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Everton won 1.

Everton is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Man Utd has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Man Utd may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Man Utd has had a series of home games.

Man Utd might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Everton: Norgaard C. (Injury)

There will not play in Man Utd: Baleba C. (Ankle Injury) Diallo A. (Injury) Ugarte M. (Knee Injury) de Ligt M. (Back Injury)

There are questionable in Man Utd: Heaton T. (Injury) Mount M. (Foot Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Everton won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 20:38. (average 1:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Everton won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:14. (average 1.1:1.6).

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Everton: 0.44%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Everton	5	2	3	0	6:3	3	9
12	Manchester Utd	5	1	2	2	8:8	0	5

Last Results with these Odds

Everton - the odds 3.06 are the expected chance of winning is 30.94%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Manchester United - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 42.03%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Everton
English Premier League
29.08.26	Bournemouth - Everton	1:1 ✺
English League Cup
26.08.26	Preston North End - Everton	0:4 ✺
English Premier League
22.08.26	Everton - Crystal Palace	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Everton - Lille	1:1 ✺
12.08.26	Newcastle United - Everton	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 TWWTW
- Manchester United
English Premier League
30.08.26	Manchester United - Ipswich Town	5:2 ✺
22.08.26	Hull City - Manchester United	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Manchester United - Milan	2:4 ✺
12.08.26	Manchester United - Leeds United	2:1 penalties ✺
01.08.26	Manchester United - Atlético Madrid	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
23.02.26	Everton - Manchester United	0:1
24.11.25	Manchester United - Everton	0:1
Premier League Summer Series
03.08.25	Manchester United - Everton	2:2
English Premier League
22.02.25	Everton - Manchester United	2:2
01.12.24	Manchester United - Everton	4:0
09.03.24	Manchester United - Everton	2:0
26.11.23	Everton - Manchester United	0:3

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