Match Info

Premier League - Round 33

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Stamford Bridge (London)

Referee: Oliver M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Chelsea		Manchester United

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.8	3.2
	2.12	3.75	3.3
	2.17	3.8	3.37
	2.1	3.83	3.41	Watch
	2.1	3.5	3.1
	2.12	3.92	3.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↓ (2.21)	3.77 ↑ (3.51)	3.28 (3.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chelsea
45.4%

Draw
25.4%

Manchester United
29.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.4%

27.3%

29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.3%

28.5%

28.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chelsea has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Manchester United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chelsea than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manchester United than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
51.9%	23.1%	25%

Chelsea - Manchester United Predictions

Users Predictions: 50 users predict this event. Chelsea will win (votes: 25 - 50%). Man Utd will win (votes: 13 - 26%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 24%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Chelsea: 36.1% – 63.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Chelsea (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Chelsea will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Chelsea (votes: 8 - 88.9%). Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sanchez R. (G) 27. Gusto M. 29. Fofana W. 21. Hato J. 3. Cucurella M. 25. Caicedo M. (C) 8. Fernandez E. 41. Estêvão 10. Palmer C. 7. Neto P. 9. Delap L.	31. Lammens S. (G) 2. Dalot D. 3. Mazraoui N. 26. Heaven A. 23. Shaw L. 18. Casemiro 37. Mainoo K. 19. Mbeumo B. 8. Fernandes B. (C) 10. Cunha M. 30. Sesko B.
Substitutes
34. Acheampong J. 4. Adarabioyo T. 17. Andrey Santos 23. Chalobah T. 14. Essugo D. 49. Garnacho A. 38. Guiu M. 45. Lavia R. 28. Sharman-Lowe T. (G)	1. Bayindir A. (G) 16. Diallo A. 39. Fletcher T. 61. Lacey S. 12. Malacia T. 7. Mount M. 77. Thwaites J. 25. Ugarte M. 11. Zirkzee J.
Coaches
Rosenior L.	Carrick M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
16', Estêvão ↓, Garnacho A. ↑,
25', Cunha M. 🟨,
39', Hato J. 🟨,
43', 0 - 1, Cunha M. ⚽, Fernandes B. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
80', Sesko B. ↓, Diallo A. ↑,
81', Cunha M. ↓, Mount M. ↑,
81', Gusto M. ↓, Acheampong J. ↑,
81', Fofana W. ↓, Chalobah T. ↑,
87', Mbeumo B. ↓, Zirkzee J. ↑,
88', Fernandez E. ↓, Lavia R. ↑,
90+1', Mount M. 🟨,
90+4', Mainoo K. 🟨,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chelsea won 2.

Recent form of Chelsea has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Man Utd has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Man Utd may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Chelsea has had a series of home games.

Chelsea might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Chelsea: Colwill L. (Knee Injury) Gittens J. (Muscle Injury) James R. (Hamstring Injury) Jorgensen F. (Groin Injury) Mudryk M. (Suspended)

There will not play in Man Utd: Dorgu P. (Hamstring Injury) Maguire H. (Suspended) Martinez Li. (Red Card) Yoro L. (Injury) de Ligt M. (Back Injury)

There are questionable in Chelsea: Chalobah T. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Chelsea won 4 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 21:31. (average 1.1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Chelsea won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:13. (average 1.1:1.3).

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Chelsea: 5.71%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	10:12	-2	7
12	Manchester Utd	5	1	2	2	8:8	0	5

Last Results with these Odds

Chelsea - the odds 2.21 are the expected chance of winning is 43.41%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chelsea
English Premier League
12.04.26	Chelsea - Manchester City	0:3 ✺
English FA Cup
04.04.26	Chelsea - Port Vale	7:0 ✺
English Premier League
21.03.26	Everton - Chelsea	3:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.03.26	Chelsea - Paris Saint-Germain	0:3 ✺
English Premier League
14.03.26	Chelsea - Newcastle United	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LWLLL
- Manchester United
English Premier League
13.04.26	Manchester United - Leeds United	1:2 ✺
20.03.26	Bournemouth - Manchester United	2:2 ✺
15.03.26	Manchester United - Aston Villa	3:1 ✺
04.03.26	Newcastle United - Manchester United	2:1 ✺
01.03.26	Manchester United - Crystal Palace	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LTWLW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
20.09.25	Manchester United - Chelsea	2:1
16.05.25	Chelsea - Manchester United	1:0
03.11.24	Manchester United - Chelsea	1:1
04.04.24	Chelsea - Manchester United	4:3
06.12.23	Manchester United - Chelsea	2:1
25.05.23	Manchester United - Chelsea	4:1
22.10.22	Chelsea - Manchester United	1:1

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