The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Excelsior Maassluis 28.7%
Draw 24.6%
Spakenburg 46.7%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
26%
24.8%
49.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
26.9%
24%
47.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Excelsior Maassluis has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)
Spakenburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Excelsior Maassluis than the current prediction. (-1.8%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spakenburg than the current prediction. (+0.9%)
Excelsior Maassluis - Spakenburg Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
16. El Fakiri K. (G) 2. Tureaij C. 8. Udenhout J. 3. Ringeling K. 24. Lopes Varela D. 30. Hamd Y. 19. van der Velden S. 6. van Eerden J. 14. Verbont J. 9. Wennekers B. 11. Tavares Q.
13. Houweling J. (G) 3. Apau M. 81. Linthorst T. 44. Guiting J. 5. Green D. 14. Wesdorp K. 8. van Huffel S. 16. Kok O. 7. El Azzouti A. 9. van der Linden F. 22. van Mil K.
Substitutes
26. Bronder S. 37. Hulshoff D. 10. Madi A. 21. Nagtegaal N. 12. Riley B. 17. Slagveer D. 28. Smit D. (G)
4. Claver C. 1. Heus M. (G) 11. Junte R. 10. Kunst D. 27. Puriel J. 20. Quaedvlieg F. 15. van Lopik H.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Wennekers B. ⚽, Verbont J. (A),
16', 2 - 0, Tavares Q. ⚽, Verbont J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Wesdorp K. ↓, Kunst D. ↑,
46', van Eerden J. ↓, Nagtegaal N. ↑,
46', Green D. ↓, Claver C. ↑,
46', Guiting J. ↓, van Lopik H. ↑,
64', van der Velden S. ↓, Madi A. ↑,
64', Wennekers B. ↓, Slagveer D. ↑,
66', Kok O. ↓, Puriel J. ↑,
68', Nagtegaal N. 🟨,
73', van Mil K. ↓, Junte R. ↑,
82', Tavares Q. ↓, Bronder S. ↑,
82', Verbont J. ↓, Hulshoff D. ↑,
90', 3 - 0, Hulshoff D. ⚽,
90+3', 3 - 1, El Azzouti A. ⚽, van der Linden F. (A),
Preview
Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Tweede Divisie (Relegation) and 6).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Excelsior Maassluis won 1.
Excelsior Maassluis is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Spakenburg has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins โ 1).
Recently, Spakenburg has had a series of home games.
Spakenburg will hold a modest advantage in this match.
In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Excelsior Maassluis won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 18:20. (average 1.4:1.5).
Including home matches between the teams, Excelsior Maassluis won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:7. (average 1.7:1.2).
Watch
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El Fakiri K. (G) 
Green D. 
Puriel J. 
