Match Info

FNL 2 - Division B - Group 1 - Round 26

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	FC Sevastopol		Zarya

	1	X	2
	1.37	4.88	6.81
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↓ (1.47)	4.88 ↑ (4.74)	6.81 ↑ (6.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

FC Sevastopol
67.5%

Draw
18.9%

Zarya
13.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

64.9%

20.1%

14.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.9%

18.4%

13.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

FC Sevastopol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Zarya has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for FC Sevastopol than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zarya than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

FC Sevastopol - Zarya Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
26', 1 - 0, Grechkin A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
66', 2 - 0, Maksimov I. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1st in the Promotion and 10th).

Sevastopol is currently on a high with consecutive positive results (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

Zarya shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Zarya could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, Sevastopol enters as the overwhelming favorite.

Our forecast points to a victory for Sevastopol in today's match, at odds of 1.47.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	FC Sevastopol ✔	28	21	3	4	56:23	33	66
10	Lugansk	28	8	6	14	37:40	-3	30

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Sevastopol
Russian FNL 2 Division B Group 1
26.09.26	Rostov 2 - FC Sevastopol	0:1 ✺
22.09.26	FC Sevastopol - Rubin Yalta	3:1 ✺
05.09.26	FC Sevastopol - Kyzyltash	2:1 ✺
29.08.26	FC Sevastopol - Spartak Nalchik	1:0 ✺
22.08.26	Angust Nazran - FC Sevastopol	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WWWWW
- Zarya Rostov
Russian FNL 2 Division B Group 1
19.09.26	Chayka 2 - Zarya	1:5 ✺
12.09.26	Rostov 2 - Zarya	0:5 ✺
05.09.26	Zarya - Shakhtyor Taganrog	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Zarya - Astrakhan	4:0 ✺
22.08.26	Pobeda Khasavyurt - Zarya	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.7 WWTWL

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Sevastopol
Russian FNL 2 Division B Group 1
31.10.26	FC Sevastopol - Shakhtyor Taganrog	✺
- Zarya Rostov
Russian FNL 2 Division B Group 1
31.10.26	Kyzyltash - Zarya	✺

FC Sevastopol - Zarya