Match Info

Esiliiga - Round 32

Date: 15 October 2026, Thursday

Location: Lasnamäe Sports Complex Stadium (Tallinn)

Where to Watch on TV:


Estonia	Jalgpall.ee


	FC Tallinn		Tartu Welco

	1	X	2
				Watch
	4.10	4.20	1.57
	4.90	4.35	1.43
	4.35	4.50	1.63
	4.73	4.30	1.54	Watch
	4.15	3.80	1.60
	4.02	4.64	1.65
	4.00	4.20	1.58
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.32 ↓ (4.8)	4.28 ↑ (4.25)	1.57 ↑ (1.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

FC Tallinn
21%

Draw
21.2%

Tartu Welco
57.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

18.3%

20.7%

61%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.8%

20.1%

62.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

FC Tallinn has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Tartu Welco has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for FC Tallinn than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tartu Welco than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

FC Tallinn - Tartu Welco Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 4)
3', 0 - 1, Kablik H. ⚽,
5', 0 - 2, Veensalu E. ⚽,
20', Avilov V. 🟥,
21', 0 - 3, Kablik H. ⚽,
37', 0 - 4, Malki U. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
53', 0 - 5, Laasner K. ⚽,
78', 0 - 6, Laasner K. ⚽,
90', 0 - 7, Roots R. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, FC Tallinn won 1.

FC Tallinn has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Tartu Welco shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

FC Tallinn may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Bookmakers give the edge to Tartu Welco for this game.

In the last 13 head-to-head meetings, FC Tallinn has recorded 2 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 16:33 (averaging 1.2:2.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for FC Tallinn against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 4 losses, with 8:16 goals (averaging 1.3:2.7 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Tartu Welco	33	22	5	6	92:39	53	71
8	FC Tallinn	32	9	8	15	41:71	-30	35

Last Results with these Odds

Tartu Welco - the odds 1.44 are the expected chance of winning is 61.02%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Tallinn
Estonian Esiliiga
10.10.26	Flora U21 - FC Tallinn	1:2 ✺
Estonian Cup
03.10.26	FC Tallinn - Harju JK Laagri	0:10 ✺
Estonian Esiliiga
19.09.26	Elva - FC Tallinn	1:1 ✺
13.09.26	FC Tallinn - Levadia Tallinn U21	1:5 ✺
03.09.26	Viimsi JK - FC Tallinn	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 28.3 WLTLW
- Tartu JK Welco
Estonian Esiliiga
09.10.26	Tartu Welco - Elva	4:0 ✺
17.09.26	Viimsi JK - Tartu Welco	0:2 ✺
14.09.26	Tartu Welco - Nõmme Kalju U21	3:0 ✺
10.09.26	Levadia Tallinn U21 - Tartu Welco	0:0 ✺
05.09.26	Tallinna Kalev - Tartu Welco	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Esiliiga
18.07.26	Tartu Welco - FC Tallinn	0:2
13.06.26	Tartu Welco - FC Tallinn	4:0
01.05.26	FC Tallinn - Tartu Welco	0:2
21.09.25	Tartu Welco - FC Tallinn	2:2
23.08.25	FC Tallinn - Tartu Welco	0:2
05.07.25	FC Tallinn - Tartu Welco	1:5
29.03.25	Tartu Welco - FC Tallinn	3:1

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