Match Info

Esiliiga - Round 27

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Kadrioru Staadion (Tallinn)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Tallinna Kalev		Tartu Welco

	1	X	2
	3.40	3.80	1.75
	2.88	3.70	1.93
	3.46	4.49	1.69
	3.48	4.40	1.73	Watch
	3.25	4.40	1.68
	3.76	4.38	1.74
	3.20	4.00	1.79
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.35 ↓ (3.55)	4.17 ↑ (4)	1.76 ↑ (1.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 8.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tallinna Kalev
27%

Draw
21.7%

Tartu Welco
51.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.8%

22%

53.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24%

21.3%

55.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tallinna Kalev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Tartu Welco has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tallinna Kalev than the current prediction. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tartu Welco than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Tallinna Kalev - Tartu Welco Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Kalev (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Kalev (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
24', 0 - 1, Laasner K. ⚽, Kablik H. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
73', 1 - 1, Tomberg M. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kalev won 4.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Tartu Welco is the team to beat.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Kalev won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 27:8. (average 2.7:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Kalev won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:2. (average 2.8:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Tartu Welco	31	20	5	6	81:39	42	65
6	Tallinna Kalev	30	11	7	12	52:55	-3	40

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tallinna Kalev
Estonian Esiliiga
29.08.26	Flora U21 - Tallinna Kalev	5:0 ✺
24.08.26	Tallinna Kalev - Maardu Linnameeskond	1:3 ✺
20.08.26	Nõmme Kalju U21 - Tallinna Kalev	0:3 ✺
15.08.26	Tallinna Kalev - Elva	1:0 ✺
Estonian Cup
11.08.26	Tallinna Kalev - Tartu Kalev	8:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LLWWW
- Tartu JK Welco
Estonian Esiliiga
29.08.26	Tartu Welco - Viimsi JK	1:3 ✺
23.08.26	Nõmme Kalju U21 - Tartu Welco	2:4 ✺
20.08.26	Tartu Welco - Levadia Tallinn U21	4:2 ✺
15.08.26	Tartu Welco - Flora U21	2:1 ✺
08.08.26	Elva - Tartu Welco	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Esiliiga
09.05.26	Tallinna Kalev - Tartu Welco	2:0
05.03.26	Tartu Welco - Tallinna Kalev	3:0
Estonian Cup
15.07.23	Tartu Welco - Tallinna Kalev	0:4
Estonian Esiliiga
31.10.21	Tartu Welco - Tallinna Kalev	2:3
12.08.21	Tartu Welco - Tallinna Kalev	0:1
27.05.21	Tallinna Kalev - Tartu Welco	2:1
26.10.17	Tallinna Kalev - Tartu Welco	4:1

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