Match Info

J1 League - Round 31

Date: 23 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: City Light Stadium (Okayama)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Fagiano Okayama		Yokohama FC

	1	X	2
	2.75	2.82	2.7	Watch
	2.72	2.88	2.72	Watch
	2.9	3.03	2.84
	2.53	2.71	3.35	Watch
	2.76	3.01	2.83	Watch
	2.19	3.3	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.64 ↑ (2.19)	2.96 ↓ (3.27)	2.97 ↓ (3.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fagiano Okayama
35.9%

Draw
32.1%

Yokohama FC
32%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

28.8%

28.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.3%

28.5%

28.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fagiano Okayama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fagiano Okayama's form might have worsened.

Yokohama FC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fagiano Okayama than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fagiano Okayama, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Yokohama FC than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	54.5%	18.2%

Fagiano Okayama - Yokohama FC Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Okayama will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Yokohama FC will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 54.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Okayama (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.75 - Okayama (1.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Okayama (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
49. Brodersen S. (C) 4. Abe K. 18. Tagami D. 15. Kudo K. 26. Motoyama H. 33. Kamiya Yuta 14. Tabei R. 17. Sueyoshi R. 27. Kimura T. 19. Iwabuchi H. 99. Lucao	21. Ichikawa A. (G) 16. Ito M. 30. Yamazaki K. 70. Hosoi K. 3. Suzuki J. 4. Lara Y. (C) 34. Ogura H. 48. Shimbo K. 15. Ito S. 90. Adailton 91. Lukian
Substitutes
8. Esaka A. 3. Fujii K. 22. Ichimi K. 50. Kato H. 77. Kawanami G. (G) 28. Matsumoto M. 43. Suzuki Y. 98. Werik Popo 88. Yanagi T.	39. Endo T. 32. Ishii R. (G) 22. Iwatake K. 10. Joao Paulo 23. Kubota R. 2. Nduka B. 9. Sakuragawa S. 76. Yamada K. 8. Yamane T.
Coaches
Kiyama T.	Miura F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
6', Lukian 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Ogura H. ↓, Yamada K. ↑,
46', Shimbo K. ↓, Nduka B. ↑,
56', Ito S. ↓, Sakuragawa S. ↑,
58', Iwabuchi H. ↓, Esaka A. ↑,
67', Lukian ↓, Joao Paulo ↑,
70', Kimura T. ↓, Ichimi K. ↑,
70', Lucao ↓, Werik Popo ↑,
79', Tabei R. ↓, Fujii K. ↑,
79', Sueyoshi R. ↓, Yanagi T. ↑,
90', Werik Popo 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 12 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Okayama won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Yokohama FC: Leo Bahia (Knee Injury) Miyata I. (Muscle Injury) Murata T. (Calf Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Okayama won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 18:23. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Okayama won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:11. (average 0.8:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fagiano Okayama
Japan J1 League
20.09.25	Tokyo Verdy - Fagiano Okayama	4:2 ✺
13.09.25	Fagiano Okayama - Nagoya Grampus	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Kyoto Sanga - Fagiano Okayama	5:0 ✺
23.08.25	Fagiano Okayama - Shonan Bellmare	1:0 ✺
17.08.25	Fagiano Okayama - Kashiwa Reysol	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LLLWW
- Yokohama FC
Japan J1 League
20.09.25	Yokohama FC - Albirex Niigata	1:0 ✺
12.09.25	Machida Zelvia - Yokohama FC	1:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
07.09.25	Vissel Kobe - Yokohama FC	1:0 ✺
03.09.25	Yokohama FC - Vissel Kobe	2:0 ✺
Japan J1 League
30.08.25	Yokohama FC - Tokyo Verdy	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.9 WTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
22.02.25	Yokohama FC - Fagiano Okayama	1:0
Japan J2 League
27.10.24	Yokohama FC - Fagiano Okayama	2:4
Japan J League Cup
24.04.24	Fagiano Okayama - Yokohama FC	3:4 penalties
Japan J2 League
03.04.24	Fagiano Okayama - Yokohama FC	1:3
20.08.22	Yokohama FC - Fagiano Okayama	1:0
20.03.22	Fagiano Okayama - Yokohama FC	1:1
16.11.19	Fagiano Okayama - Yokohama FC	0:1

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