Match Info

J1 League - Round 10

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Sanga Stadium by Kyocera (Kameoka)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan


	Kyoto Sanga		Fagiano Okayama

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.1	3.4	Watch
	1.93	3.5	3.75
	2.15	3.15	3.3	Watch
	2.27	3.38	3.37
	2.15	3.43	3.39	Watch
	2.15	3.1	3.2
	2.14	3.28	3.39	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↑ (1.88)	3.28 ↓ (3.8)	3.4 ↓ (3.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kyoto Sanga
43.9%

Draw
28.6%

Fagiano Okayama
27.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.3%

24.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.5%

24.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kyoto Sanga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Kyoto Sanga's form might have worsened.

Fagiano Okayama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kyoto Sanga than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Kyoto Sanga, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fagiano Okayama than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	25%	12.5%

Kyoto Sanga - Fagiano Okayama Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Kyoto will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Okayama will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kyoto: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Kyoto (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ota G. (G) 2. Fukuda S. (C) 50. Suzuki Y. 34. Henrique Trevisan 44. Sato K. 6. Joao Pedro 25. Yoon S. 39. Hirato T. 17. Souza Alex 11. Marco Tulio 99. Honda F.	52. Hamada T. (G) 48. Tatsuta Y. 18. Tagami D. 4. Abe K. 28. Matsumoto M. 41. Miyamoto E. 33. Kamiya Yuta 51. Shirai K. 27. Kimura T. 8. Esaka A. (C) 99. Lucao
Substitutes
77. Arai H. 3. Asada S. 19. David 16. Hiraoka T. 40. Ishida Y. 21. Kakoi K. (G) 48. Nakano R. 7. Okugawa M. 8. Yonemoto T.	45. Browne N. 3. Fujii K. 22. Ichimi K. 40. Kawano K. 1. Moser L. (G) 26. Motoyama H. 5. Ogura K. 6. Omori H. 98. Werik Popo
Coaches
Jo Gwi-Jae	Kiyama T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
12', 1 - 0, Souza Alex ⚽, Honda F. (A),
13', Souza Alex 🟨,
31', 1 - 1, Kimura T. ⚽, Esaka A. (A),
45+5', 2 - 1, Sato K. ⚽, Joao Pedro (A),
45+8', 3 - 1, Joao Pedro ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
56', 4 - 1, Suzuki Y. ⚽, Honda F. (A),
61', Kamiya Yuta ↓, Ogura K. ↑,
61', Matsumoto M. ↓, Werik Popo ↑,
64', Yoon S. 🟨,
70', Honda F. ↓, Okugawa M. ↑,
71', Kimura T. ↓, Browne N. ↑,
71', Lucao ↓, Ichimi K. ↑,
77', Yoon S. ↓, Asada S. ↑,
77', Hirato T. ↓, Nakano R. ↑,
77', Esaka A. ↓, Kawano K. ↑,
85', Asada S. 🟨,
87', Marco Tulio ↓, David ↑,
88', Souza Alex ↓, Yonemoto T. ↑,
90+1', 5 - 1, Joao Pedro ⚽, Henrique Trevisan (A),

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place) and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kyoto won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Kyoto might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Okayama: Tabei R. (Injury)

There are questionable in Kyoto: Rafael Elias (Injury)

There are questionable in Okayama: Fujita I. (Injury) Kudo K. (Injury) Lucao (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kyoto won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 26:26. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Kyoto won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:9. (average 1.7:0.9).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Okayama: 1.92% Kyoto: 1.57%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Okayama	4	1	1	2	3:4	-1	4
14	Kyoto	4	1	1	2	6:8	-2	4

Last Results with these Odds

Fagiano Okayama - the odds 3.8 are the expected chance of winning is 24.87%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kyoto Sanga
Japan J1 League
04.04.26	Gamba Osaka - Kyoto Sanga	2:0 ✺
22.03.26	Kyoto Sanga - Nagoya Grampus	2:1 penalties ✺
18.03.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Kyoto Sanga	1:2 ✺
14.03.26	Kyoto Sanga - Cerezo Osaka	1:2 ✺
07.03.26	Fagiano Okayama - Kyoto Sanga	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LWWLL
- Fagiano Okayama
Japan J1 League
05.04.26	Fagiano Okayama - Vissel Kobe	1:4 ✺
21.03.26	Fagiano Okayama - V-Varen Nagasaki	0:1 ✺
18.03.26	Cerezo Osaka - Fagiano Okayama	1:2 ✺
14.03.26	Shimizu S-Pulse - Fagiano Okayama	2:1 penalties ✺
07.03.26	Fagiano Okayama - Kyoto Sanga	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
07.03.26	Fagiano Okayama - Kyoto Sanga	1:0
30.08.25	Kyoto Sanga - Fagiano Okayama	5:0
15.02.25	Fagiano Okayama - Kyoto Sanga	2:0
Japan J2 League
20.11.21	Fagiano Okayama - Kyoto Sanga	0:0
26.06.21	Kyoto Sanga - Fagiano Okayama	2:0
04.11.20	Kyoto Sanga - Fagiano Okayama	2:1
29.07.20	Fagiano Okayama - Kyoto Sanga	1:1

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