Match Info

J1 League - Round 26

Date: 17 August 2025, Sunday

Location: City Light Stadium (Okayama)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Sporty TV, StarTimes App
Australia	Stan Sport
Brazil	Canal GOAT
China	K-Ball
Hong-kong	myTV SUPER
India	FanCode, FanCode
Japan	DAZN Japan
North-macedonia	TDM Desporto


	Fagiano Okayama		Kashiwa Reysol

	1	X	2
	4.2	3.4	1.85	Watch
	4	3.4	1.88
	4.05	3.31	1.87	Watch
	4.4	3.65	1.9
	2.04	3.53	3.43	Watch
	4	3.3	1.91
	4.53	3.49	1.86	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.89 ↑ (3.76)	3.44 ↑ (3.43)	2.1 ↑ (2.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fagiano Okayama
25.1%

Draw
28.4%

Kashiwa Reysol
46.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.3%

27.7%

47%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.9%

27.3%

47.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fagiano Okayama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Kashiwa Reysol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fagiano Okayama than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kashiwa Reysol than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.3%	8.7%	87%

Fagiano Okayama - Kashiwa Reysol Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Kashiwa Reysol will win (20 of 23 users predict this - 86.96%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.2% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Kashiwa Reysol will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
49. Brodersen S. (G) 2. Tatsuta Y. 18. Tagami D. 43. Suzuki Y. 88. Yanagi T. 24. Fujita I. 41. Miyamoto E. 39. Sato R. 19. Iwabuchi H. 8. Esaka A. 22. Ichimi K.	25. Kojima R. (G) 42. Harada W. 4. Koga T. 2. Mitsumaru H. 24. Kubo T. 40. Harakawa R. 39. Nakagawa N. 14. Koyamatsu T. 11. Watai M. 20. Segawa Y. 18. Kakita Y.
Substitutes
33. Kamiya Yuta 50. Kato H. 77. Kawanami G. (G) 27. Kimura T. 15. Kudo K. 99. Lucao 28. Matsumoto M. 14. Tabei R. 98. Werik Popo	88. Baba S. 3. Diego 9. Hosoya M. 13. Inukai T. 21. Konishi Y. 19. Nakama H. 1. Saruta H. (G) 26. Sugioka D. 6. Yamada Y.
Coaches
Kiyama T.	Rodriguez R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Iwabuchi H. ⚽, Esaka A. (A),
28', Kakita Y. 🟨,
32', Tatsuta Y. ↓, Matsumoto M. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Kakita Y. ↓, Hosoya M. ↑,
46', Harakawa R. ↓, Yamada Y. ↑,
62', Suzuki Y. ↓, Kudo K. ↑,
62', Iwabuchi H. ↓, Kimura T. ↑,
67', Koyamatsu T. ↓, Diego ↑,
67', Watai M. ↓, Konishi Y. ↑,
81', Ichimi K. ↓, Lucao ↑,
82', Esaka A. ↓, Kamiya Yuta ↑,
84', Segawa Y. ↓, Nakama H. ↑,
90', 2 - 0, Lucao ⚽,
90+5', 2 - 1, Nakama H. ⚽, Diego (A),

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2).

Okayama has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Kashiwa is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Kashiwa is the team to beat.

There will not play in Okayama: Motoyama H. (Inactive)

There will not play in Kashiwa: Kumasaka K. (Knee Injury) Tezuka K. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Okayama: Suzuki Y. (Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Okayama won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:6. (average 0.3:2).

Including home match between the teams, Okayama won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fagiano Okayama
Japan J1 League
10.08.25	Gamba Osaka - Fagiano Okayama	0:3 ✺
20.07.25	Fagiano Okayama - Vissel Kobe	1:2 ✺
05.07.25	Fagiano Okayama - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0:1 ✺
28.06.25	Kashima Antlers - Fagiano Okayama	1:2 ✺
21.06.25	Yokohama F. Marinos - Fagiano Okayama	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.1 WLLWW
- Kashiwa Reysol
Japan J1 League
10.08.25	Kashiwa Reysol - Shonan Bellmare	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
30.07.25	Kashiwa Reysol - Reims	2:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
20.07.25	Kashima Antlers - Kashiwa Reysol	3:2 ✺
05.07.25	Kashiwa Reysol - Tokyo	1:0 ✺
28.06.25	Shimizu S-Pulse - Kashiwa Reysol	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
10.05.25	Kashiwa Reysol - Fagiano Okayama	2:0
Japan J2 League
31.07.19	Fagiano Okayama - Kashiwa Reysol	0:4
23.03.19	Kashiwa Reysol - Fagiano Okayama	0:1

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