Match Info

J1 League - Round 30

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Ajinomoto Stadium (Tokyo)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Tokyo Verdy		Fagiano Okayama

	1	X	2
	2.2	2.75	3.9	Watch
	2.25	2.78	3.65
	2.36	2.88	3.96
	1.39	4.30	8.94	Watch
	2.3	2.76	3.91	Watch
	2.25	2.9	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↓ (2.4)	3.06 ↑ (3.05)	4.63 ↑ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tokyo Verdy
46.4%

Draw
32.2%

Fagiano Okayama
21.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.8%

31.3%

28.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.8%

32.1%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tokyo Verdy has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tokyo Verdy's performance.

Fagiano Okayama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fagiano Okayama might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tokyo Verdy than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tokyo Verdy that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fagiano Okayama than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fagiano Okayama could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Tokyo Verdy - Fagiano Okayama Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Tokyo Verdy will win (votes: 6 - 50%). Okayama will win (votes: 3 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tokyo Verdy: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Tokyo Verdy (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

1X2, 2nd Half - Tokyo Verdy (2.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Tokyo Verdy (3.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Okayama (2.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC, 2nd Half - draw (1.41) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Tokyo Verdy (votes: 3 - 50%). Okayama (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Matheus Vidotto (G) 6. Miyahara K. 4. Hayashi N. 3. Taniguchi H. 19. Matsuhashi Y. 7. Morita K. 8. Saito K. 2. Fukazawa D. 71. Hirao H. 40. Arai Y. 9. Someno I.	49. Brodersen S. (G) 4. Abe K. 18. Tagami D. 43. Suzuki Y. 88. Yanagi T. 33. Kamiya Yuta 14. Tabei R. 50. Kato H. 27. Kimura T. 8. Esaka A. (C) 22. Ichimi K.
Substitutes
14. Fukuda Y. 17. Inami T. 25. Kumatoriya I. 20. Meshino S. 21. Nagasawa Y. (G) 15. Suzuki K. 45. Teranuma S. 38. Toyama S. 26. Uchida Y.	3. Fujii K. 19. Iwabuchi H. 77. Kawanami G. (G) 15. Kudo K. 99. Lucao 28. Matsumoto M. 26. Motoyama H. 17. Sueyoshi R. 98. Werik Popo
Coaches
Hiroshi J.	Kiyama T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
8', 1 - 0, Someno I. ⚽, Morita K. (A),
37', 1 - 1, Esaka A. ⚽, Kato H. (A),
45+2', Suzuki Y. 🟨,
45+3', 1 - 2, Ichimi K. ⚽, Tabei R. (A),
45+4', 2 - 2, Hirao H. ⚽, Morita K. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Ichimi K. ↓, Lucao ↑,
46', Arai Y. ↓, Fukuda Y. ↑,
63', Esaka A. ↓, Iwabuchi H. ↑,
63', Yanagi T. ↓, Matsumoto M. ↑,
69', 3 - 2, Fukuda Y. ⚽,
73', Kato H. ↓, Werik Popo ↑,
74', Someno I. ↓, Teranuma S. ↑,
74', Matsuhashi Y. ↓, Uchida Y. ↑,
76', Hirao H. ↓, Toyama S. ↑,
81', Kamiya Yuta ↓, Motoyama H. ↑,
81', Morita K. ↓, Inami T. ↑,
88', 4 - 2, Taniguchi H. ⚽, Fukuda Y. (A),

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tokyo Verdy won 3.

Tokyo Verdy has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Okayama has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Tokyo Verdy is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Tokyo Verdy: Hirakawa R. (Yellow Cards) Yamada G. (Knee Injury) Yamami H. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Okayama: Sato R. (Yellow Cards)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Tokyo Verdy won 9 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 21:18. (average 1.1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Tokyo Verdy won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 10:13. (average 1:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tokyo Verdy
Japan J1 League
15.09.25	Tokyo - Tokyo Verdy	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Yokohama FC - Tokyo Verdy	0:0 ✺
23.08.25	Tokyo Verdy - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0:3 ✺
16.08.25	Kyoto Sanga - Tokyo Verdy	1:0 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
13.08.25	Tokyo Verdy - Nagoya Grampus	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LTLLL
- Fagiano Okayama
Japan J1 League
13.09.25	Fagiano Okayama - Nagoya Grampus	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Kyoto Sanga - Fagiano Okayama	5:0 ✺
23.08.25	Fagiano Okayama - Shonan Bellmare	1:0 ✺
17.08.25	Fagiano Okayama - Kashiwa Reysol	2:1 ✺
10.08.25	Gamba Osaka - Fagiano Okayama	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.9 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
29.04.25	Fagiano Okayama - Tokyo Verdy	0:1
Japan J2 League
26.08.23	Tokyo Verdy - Fagiano Okayama	2:3
11.06.23	Fagiano Okayama - Tokyo Verdy	1:2
23.10.22	Tokyo Verdy - Fagiano Okayama	2:0
01.05.22	Fagiano Okayama - Tokyo Verdy	2:1
09.10.21	Tokyo Verdy - Fagiano Okayama	1:2
Japan Emperors Cup
16.06.21	Tokyo Verdy - Fagiano Okayama	0:1

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