Match Info

J1 League - Round 4

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday

Location: City Light Stadium (Okayama)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT
China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Fagiano Okayama		Nagoya Grampus

	1	X	2
	3	2.85	2.25	Watch
	2.9	3	2.5
	3.1	2.98	2.35	Watch
	3.28	3.17	2.46
	3.25	3.17	2.33	Watch
	3.1	2.9	2.3
	3.14	3.06	2.37	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.11 ↑ (2.99)	3.02 ↓ (3.06)	2.37 ↓ (2.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fagiano Okayama
29.9%

Draw
30.8%

Nagoya Grampus
39.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31%

30.3%

38.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fagiano Okayama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Nagoya Grampus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	42.9%	57.1%

Fagiano Okayama - Nagoya Grampus Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Nagoya will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Nagoya (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Okayama (1.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Okayama (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Nagoya (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Moser L. (G) 48. Tatsuta Y. 18. Tagami D. 2. Kudo K. 51. Shirai K. 3. Fujii K. 41. Miyamoto E. 88. Yamane T. 27. Kimura T. 8. Esaka A. (C) 99. Lucao	1. Schmidt D. (G) 70. Hara T. 13. Fujii H. 3. Sato Y. 44. Mori S. 15. Inagaki S. (C) 31. Takamine T. 27. Nakayama K. 25. Marcus Vinicius 22. Kimura Y. 11. Yamagishi Y.
Substitutes
4. Abe K. 52. Hamada T. (G) 22. Ichimi K. 33. Kamiya Yuta 40. Kawano K. 28. Matsumoto M. 6. Omori H. 43. Suzuki Y. 35. Takahashi A.	9. Asano Y. 19. Koda H. 20. Mikuni K. 18. Nagai K. 2. Nogami Y. 35. Pisano A. (G) 8. Shiihashi K. 30. Sugiura S. 55. Tokumoto S.
Coaches
Kiyama T.	Petrovic M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
48', 0 - 1, Yamagishi Y. ⚽, Nakayama K. (A),
60', Kimura T. ↓, Kawano K. ↑,
60', Fujii K. ↓, Kamiya Yuta ↑,
64', Mori S. ↓, Nogami Y. ↑,
64', Marcus Vinicius ↓, Nagai K. ↑,
65', Kimura Y. ↓, Asano Y. ↑,
71', Lucao ↓, Ichimi K. ↑,
77', Yamagishi Y. ↓, Shiihashi K. ↑,
79', 1 - 1, Kawano K. ⚽, Kamiya Yuta (A),
84', Hara T. ↓, Sugiura S. ↑,
89', Asano Y. 🟨,
90', Esaka A. ↓, Takahashi A. ↑,
90', Yamane T. ↓, Matsumoto M. ↑,
Penalties (5 - 4)
1, Inagaki S. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Kamiya Yuta (Penalty Awarded),
2, Takamine T. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Ichimi K. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Fujii H. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Matsumoto M. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Shiihashi K. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Shirai K. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Nagai K. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Kawano K. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)).

Nagoya may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Nagoya: Koyamatsu T. (Injury) Mateus (Injury) Morishima T. (Injury)

There are questionable in Okayama: Fujita I. (Injury) Nishikawa J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Nagoya: Izumi R. (Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Okayama won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 0:5. (average 0:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Okayama won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:2. (average 0:1).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Okayama: 1.92% Nagoya Grampus: 0.78%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Nagoya Grampus	4	2	0	2	6:5	1	6
13	Okayama	4	1	1	2	3:4	-1	4

Last Results with these Odds

Fagiano Okayama - the odds 2.99 are the expected chance of winning is 30.96%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Nagoya Grampus - the odds 2.39 are the expected chance of winning is 38.79%, but this team recently wins 55% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fagiano Okayama
Japan J1 League
22.02.26	Fagiano Okayama - Gamba Osaka	1:2 ✺
14.02.26	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Fagiano Okayama	2:1 penalties ✺
07.02.26	Avispa Fukuoka - Fagiano Okayama	2:1 penalties ✺
06.12.25	Shimizu S-Pulse - Fagiano Okayama	1:2 ✺
30.11.25	Fagiano Okayama - Urawa Red Diamonds	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLLWL
- Nagoya Grampus
Japan J1 League
21.02.26	Nagoya Grampus - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:3 ✺
15.02.26	Gamba Osaka - Nagoya Grampus	0:1 penalties ✺
08.02.26	Nagoya Grampus - Shimizu S-Pulse	1:0 ✺
06.12.25	Nagoya Grampus - Avispa Fukuoka	1:0 ✺
30.11.25	Machida Zelvia - Nagoya Grampus	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
13.09.25	Fagiano Okayama - Nagoya Grampus	0:1
06.05.25	Nagoya Grampus - Fagiano Okayama	0:0
Japan Emperors Cup
02.08.21	Nagoya Grampus - Fagiano Okayama	1:0
Japan J2 League
05.11.17	Fagiano Okayama - Nagoya Grampus	0:1
26.02.17	Nagoya Grampus - Fagiano Okayama	2:0

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