Match Info

Superettan - Round 9

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Falcon Alkoholfri Arena (Falkenberg)

Referee: Oppong F. (Swe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sportkanalen


	Falkenberg		Värnamo

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.5	3	Watch
	2.2	3.3	2.95
	2.2	3.45	3.05
	2.24	3.55	3.21
	2.17	3.58	3.08	Watch
	2.15	3.2	2.9
	2.18	3.55	3.04	Watch
	2.5	3.35	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↓ (2.39)	3.44 ↑ (3.4)	2.97 ↑ (2.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Falkenberg
41.7%

Draw
27%

Värnamo
31.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.7%

27.2%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

27%

33.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Falkenberg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Värnamo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Falkenberg than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Värnamo than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.6%	7.7%	7.7%

Falkenberg - Värnamo Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Falkenberg will win (votes: 11 - 84.6%). Värnamo will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Falkenberg: 65% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Falkenberg (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Andersson A. (G) 6. Borgstrom L. 4. Stalheden T. (C) 23. Salo A. 8. Bertilsson N. 5. Hansson N. 19. Lindberg O. 28. Nilsson M. 30. Aguda G. 11. Kallstrom H. 9. Andersson A.	1. Keto H. (G) 4. Ohlsson S. 6. Andersson H. 5. Bergqvist D. 3. Bjornstrom A. 21. Abdulrazak I. 23. Robertsson L. 13. Jansson S. 7. Johansson C. 14. Antonsson M. (C) 9. Meriluoto K.
Substitutes
21. Beqiri L. 22. Fritiofsson T. 44. Hassan A. (G) 2. Johansson G. 29. Komano H. 17. Miftari A. 10. Mohammad E. 18. Sangare L. 14. Videhult W.	25. Alhbin E. 26. Axelsson G. 17. Bozicevic F. 15. Coulibaly S. 19. Freij E. 24. Kamara M. 16. Kujundzic A. 39. Sapielak B. (G) 34. Zulovic B.
Coaches
Andersson C.	Tufegdzic S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
27', Bertilsson N. ↓, Mohammad E. ↑,
34', 1 - 0, Stalheden T. ⚽, Aguda G. (A),
39', Ohlsson S. 🟨,
42', 2 - 0, Lindberg O. ⚽, Kallstrom H. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
70', Ohlsson S. ↓, Kamara M. ↑,
70', Jansson S. ↓, Freij E. ↑,
70', Kallstrom H. ↓, Komano H. ↑,
70', Lindberg O. ↓, Johansson G. ↑,
73', 2 - 1, Robertsson L. ⚽,
79', Borgstrom L. 🟨,
85', Andersson A. ↓, Videhult W. ↑,
85', Hansson N. ↓, Miftari A. ↑,
90', 3 - 1, Aguda G. ⚽, Borgstrom L. (A),
90', Bjornstrom A. ↓, Zulovic B. ↑,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Allsvenskan and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Falkenberg won 1.

Falkenberg is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Värnamo has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Värnamo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Falkenberg won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 23:15. (average 1.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Falkenberg won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:5. (average 1.7:0.8).

Outrights of Swedish Superettan for now

Falkenberg: 5.63%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Falkenberg	25	13	6	6	46:33	13	45
11	Varnamo	25	8	5	12	33:45	-12	29

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Falkenbergs FF
Swedish Superettan
17.05.26	United Nordic - Falkenberg	1:4 ✺
13.05.26	Falkenberg - Varbergs BoIS	0:3 ✺
09.05.26	Östersund - Falkenberg	2:2 ✺
05.05.26	Falkenberg - Norrköping	1:0 ✺
25.04.26	Falkenberg - Sundsvall	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WLTWW
- IFK Värnamo
Swedish Superettan
17.05.26	Värnamo - Norrby	2:2 ✺
12.05.26	Värnamo - Örebro	0:1 ✺
08.05.26	Varbergs BoIS - Värnamo	3:2 ✺
03.05.26	Östersund - Värnamo	3:2 ✺
26.04.26	Värnamo - Oddevold	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 TLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Swedish Superettan
25.10.21	Värnamo - Falkenberg	3:2
01.05.21	Falkenberg - Värnamo	0:3
Club Friendly
09.02.19	Falkenberg - Värnamo	0:1
Swedish Superettan
28.10.18	Falkenberg - Värnamo	3:0
Club Friendly
21.07.18	Värnamo - Falkenberg	2:1
Swedish Superettan
29.05.18	Värnamo - Falkenberg	1:4
09.08.17	Falkenberg - Värnamo	2:0

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