Match Info

Date: 22 October 2022, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Famalicao (Vila Nova de Famalicao)

Referee: Nogueira M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Famalicão		Paços de Ferreira

	1	X	2
	1.72	3.4	4.5	Watch
	1.75	3.4	4.8
	1.67	3.55	5.3
	1.77	3.4	4.7
	1.82	3.46	5.2
	1.75	3.4	4.8	Watch
	1.78	3.5	4.7	Watch
	1.8	3.45	4.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↑ (1.71)	3.45 ↓ (3.51)	4.86 ↓ (4.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Famalicão
53.4%

Draw
27.3%

Paços de Ferreira
19.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.5%

26.5%

19%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.4%

26.5%

19%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Famalicão has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Paços de Ferreira has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Famalicão than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paços de Ferreira than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
59.1%	18.2%	22.7%

Famalicão - Paços de Ferreira Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Famalicão will win (votes: 13 - 59.1%). Paços de Ferreira will win (votes: 5 - 22.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Famalicão: 38.6% – 79.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 15 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).

Famalicão has the most likely position - 15 (10.02%), has project points - 39, has currently - 7, has a chance of relegated (16%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Paços de Ferreira has the most likely position - 18 (37.17%), has project points - 26, has currently - 2, has a good chance of relegated (67%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 44, importance 40, match rating 42. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Famalicão won 1.

Recent matches Famalicão is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Paços de Ferreira is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Famalicão is a favorite.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Famalicão won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 12-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Famalicão won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Famalicão
Taça de Portugal
15.10.22	Trofense - Famalicão	0:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
10.10.22	Arouca - Famalicão	4:1 ✺
02.10.22	Famalicão - Boavista	4:0 ✺
18.09.22	Casa Pia - Famalicão	1:0 ✺
10.09.22	Famalicão - Benfica	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WLWLL
- Paços de Ferreira
Taça de Portugal
16.10.22	Setúbal - Paços de Ferreira	2:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
08.10.22	Paços de Ferreira - Vitoria Guimarães	0:1 ✺
02.10.22	Paços de Ferreira - Arouca	1:1 ✺
17.09.22	Santa Clara - Paços de Ferreira	1:1 ✺
11.09.22	Paços de Ferreira - Casa Pia	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
16.01.22	Famalicão - Paços de Ferreira	0:0
08.08.21	Paços de Ferreira - Famalicão	2:0
04.04.21	Famalicão - Paços de Ferreira	2:0
27.11.20	Paços de Ferreira - Famalicão	2:0
23.02.20	Paços de Ferreira - Famalicão	2:1
Taça de Portugal
15.01.20	Paços de Ferreira - Famalicão	0:1
Liga Portugal
14.09.19	Famalicão - Paços de Ferreira	4:2

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