Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 8

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Arouca (Arouca)

Referee: Branco Godinho L. M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 8, Free
Israel	Sport 2
Portugal	Sport TV1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine


	Arouca		Famalicão

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.3	1.96	Watch
	3.25	3.25	2.2
	3.55	3.35	2.02
	4.13	3.55	2
				Watch
	3.5	3.4	2.05	Watch
	3.25	3.3	2.21
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.57 ↑ (2.88)	3.36 ↑ (3.28)	2.07 ↓ (2.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arouca
26.4%

Draw
28.1%

Famalicão
45.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33%

28.9%

38.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.6%

29.4%

37.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Arouca's form might have worsened.

Famalicão has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Famalicão's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arouca, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Famalicão than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Famalicão, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	7.5%	82.5%

Arouca - Famalicão Predictions

Users Predictions: 40 users predict this event. Arouca will win (votes: 4 - 10%). Famalicão will win (votes: 33 - 82.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 7.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Famalicão: 70.7% – 94.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Famalicão (1.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Arouca (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Famalicão (1.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Famalicão will win (21 of 21 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 24 Selected Experts predict this event. Arouca (votes: 1 - 4.2%). Famalicão (votes: 23 - 95.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Valido J. (G) 28. Tiago Esgaio 5. Popovic B. 3. Fontan J. 16. Sola A. 21. Fukui T. 8. Simao D. (C) 19. Trezza A. 10. Gozalbez P. 7. Djouahra N. 17. Barbero I.	25. Carevic L. (G) 17. Pinheiro R. 3. Realpe L. 16. De Haas J. 5. Rafa Soares 6. Van de Looi T. 15. Mamageishvili O. 23. Gil Dias 20. Sa G. (C) 7. Sorriso 12. Elisor S.
Substitutes
78. Alex Pinto 44. Dante A. 66. Fayed O. 77. Jansonas R. 24. Mansilla B. 58. Mantl N. (G) 6. Monteiro D. 11. Puche 22. van Ee E.	9. Abubakar U. 55. Ba I. 2. Garcia 77. Joujou A. 8. Pena M. 19. Ribeiro R. 10. Rochinha 80. Santos P. 1. Zlobin I. (G)
Coaches
Seabra V.	Oliveira H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
55', Barbero I. ↓, Jansonas R. ↑,
58', 1 - 0, Trezza A. ⚽,
61', Gil Dias 🟨,
65', Fontan J. 🟨,
67', Sorriso ↓, Joujou A. ↑,
67', Mamageishvili O. ↓, Santos P. ↑,
69', Fukui T. 🟨,
71', Simao D. ↓, Puche ↑,
71', Gozalbez P. ↓, van Ee E. ↑,
79', Puche 🟨,
80', Elisor S. ↓, Abubakar U. ↑,
83', Sola A. ↓, Dante A. ↑,
83', Djouahra N. ↓, Mansilla B. ↑,
84', Fontan J. 🟨,
86', 1 - 1, De Haas J. ⚽,
87', Gil Dias ↓, Rochinha ↑,
90+1', Mansilla B. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 13 and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Arouca may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Famalicão might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Arouca: Flores M. (Inactive)

There will not play in Famalicão: Aranda O. (Knee Injury) Pastor G. (Inactive) Zabiri Y. (International duty)

There are questionable in Famalicão: Beney R. (Inactive)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 18:13. (average 1.3:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Arouca won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:7. (average 2.2:1.2).

Last Results with these Odds

Arouca - the odds 2.88 are the expected chance of winning is 32.95%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Arouca
Liga Portugal
29.09.25	Arouca - Porto	0:4 ✺
20.09.25	Nacional - Arouca	1:2 ✺
14.09.25	Arouca - Casa Pia	0:2 ✺
30.08.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Arouca	1:1 ✺
23.08.25	Arouca - Rio Ave	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LWLTT
- FC Famalicão
Liga Portugal
28.09.25	Famalicão - Rio Ave	0:0 ✺
21.09.25	Casa Pia - Famalicão	1:1 ✺
13.09.25	Famalicão - Sporting Lisbon	1:2 ✺
30.08.25	AVS - Famalicão	0:1 ✺
24.08.25	Famalicão - Gil Vicente	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 TTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
05.04.25	Arouca - Famalicão	1:2
09.11.24	Famalicão - Arouca	0:0
23.02.24	Arouca - Famalicão	3:2
22.09.23	Famalicão - Arouca	1:0
03.04.23	Famalicão - Arouca	0:1
10.10.22	Arouca - Famalicão	4:1
31.01.22	Famalicão - Arouca	0:0

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