Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 33

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio de São Luís (Faro)

Referee: Nobre A. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV6


	Farense		Paços de Ferreira

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.3	3.5
	1.93	3.1	3.5
	1.98	3.35	3.6
	2.03	3.51	3.95
	1.96	3.46	3.79	Watch
	1.95	3.1	3.5
	1.95	3.38	3.79	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↓ (1.99)	3.31 (3.31)	3.66 ↓ (3.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Farense
47.1%

Draw
27.8%

Paços de Ferreira
25.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.9%

28.2%

24.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.5%

27.3%

24%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Farense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Paços de Ferreira has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Farense than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paços de Ferreira than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Farense - Paços de Ferreira Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Araujo B. (G) 78. Alex Pinto 4. Alysson 26. Ruben (C) 34. Herrero T. 8. Menino M. 88. Teixeira R. 17. Candeias A. 80. Ndiaye A. 6. Derick Poloni 19. Oliveira L.	12. Jeimes (G) 21. Anilson 23. Ferreira T. (C) 77. Rafael 15. Dias L. 26. Cunha N. 8. Costa D. 90. Lumungo R. 13. Pinto J. 36. Silva V. 9. Victor J.
Substitutes
10. Almeida B. 9. Carter A. 22. Carvalho M. (G) 7. Costa R. 43. Dario Miranda 25. Dorregaray D. 21. Jaiminho 14. Poveda D. 46. Rafael Pontelo	47. da Silva Moreira I. A. 3. Diegao 7. Diego Fernandes 11. Fale M. 88. Francisco Ramos 4. Kauan 28. Marafona (G) 22. Mota 19. Nito
Coaches
Brito C.	Braga N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
8', Pinto J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Costa D. 🟨,
46', Alex Pinto 🟨,
47', Derick Poloni 🟨,
59', Oliveira L. ↓, Poveda D. ↑,
59', Teixeira R. ↓, Carter A. ↑,
61', Silva V. ↓, Fale M. ↑,
69', 1 - 0, Menino M. ⚽,
72', Pinto J. ↓, da Silva Moreira I. A. ↑,
72', Victor J. ↓, Diego Fernandes ↑,
72', Cunha N. ↓, Francisco Ramos ↑,
73', Menino M. 🟨,
79', Candeias A. ↓, Rafael Pontelo ↑,
83', Alex Pinto 🟨,
83', Dias L. ↓, Nito ↑,
84', 1 - 1, Costa D. ⚽,
85', Ndiaye A. ↓, Dario Miranda ↑,
87', Francisco Ramos 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 15 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Farense won 1.

Farense is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Paços de Ferreira's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Farense could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Farense won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:5. (average 0.8:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Farense won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	SC Farense	6	3	2	1	11:5	6	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Farense
Portuguese Liga 2
03.05.26	Leiria - Farense	0:3 ✺
25.04.26	Farense - Académico de Viseu	0:0 ✺
19.04.26	Vizela - Farense	0:2 ✺
11.04.26	Farense - Sporting Lisbon B	2:1 ✺
04.04.26	Farense - Feirense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.8 WTWWL
- Paços de Ferreira
Portuguese Liga 2
03.05.26	Paços de Ferreira - Feirense	1:2 ✺
26.04.26	Lusitânia - Paços de Ferreira	2:0 ✺
18.04.26	Paços de Ferreira - Chaves	4:3 ✺
10.04.26	Felgueiras - Paços de Ferreira	0:0 ✺
04.04.26	Paços de Ferreira - Marítimo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 LLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
28.12.25	Paços de Ferreira - Farense	0:0
Liga Portugal
20.04.21	Paços de Ferreira - Farense	0:2
27.12.20	Farense - Paços de Ferreira	1:1
Portuguese Liga 2
24.02.19	Farense - Paços de Ferreira	1:2
06.10.18	Paços de Ferreira - Farense	1:0

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