Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 32

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa (Leiria)

Referee: Nogueira M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV5


	Leiria		Farense

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.3	4.75
	1.93	3.2	3.5
	1.68	3.55	4.85
	1.79	3.74	4.78
	1.72	3.79	4.58	Watch
	1.73	3.4	4.2
	1.75	3.62	4.48	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (1.9)	3.51 ↑ (3.5)	4.45 ↑ (3.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leiria
52.8%

Draw
26.4%

Farense
20.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.1%

26.7%

24.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

26.9%

24.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leiria has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Farense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leiria than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Farense than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Leiria - Farense Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Leiria (1.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Leiria (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
98. Joao Bravim (G) 52. Sylla H. 5. Rofino V. G. 39. Zikovic R. 3. Baro M. 21. Pires M. 41. Daniel Borges 19. Fernandez P. 8. Kouassi E. 11. Jair da Silva 9. Munoz J. (C)	99. Araujo B. (G) 78. Alex Pinto 29. Claudio Falcao (C) 26. Ruben 6. Derick Poloni 8. Menino M. 20. Semedo Y. 17. Candeias A. 80. Ndiaye A. 34. Herrero T. 19. Oliveira L.
Substitutes
20. Gomes B. 18. Lottin A. 88. Martins D. 45. Mendes J. 86. Michel D. 99. Odehnal J. (G) 7. Quizera F. 6. Rodriguez G. 15. Silva J.	10. Almeida B. 9. Carter A. 22. Carvalho M. (G) 43. Dario Miranda 25. Dorregaray D. 21. Jaiminho 14. Poveda D. 46. Rafael Pontelo 88. Teixeira R.
Coaches
Pereira F.	Jose Faria

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
13', Claudio Falcao 🟨,
19', Sylla H. 🟨,
36', Baro M. 🟨,
40', 0 - 1, Derick Poloni (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Sylla H. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
46', Baro M. ↓, Lottin A. ↑,
46', Kouassi E. ↓, Mendes J. ↑,
49', Semedo Y. 🟨,
60', 0 - 2, Oliveira L. ⚽,
66', Zikovic R. ↓, Michel D. ↑,
70', Oliveira L. ↓, Teixeira R. ↑,
70', Semedo Y. ↓, Carter A. ↑,
77', Ndiaye A. ↓, Dario Miranda ↑,
78', Candeias A. ↓, Almeida B. ↑,
86', Menino M. ↓, Rafael Pontelo ↑,
87', Jair da Silva ↓, Quizera F. ↑,
88', Pires M. 🟨,
90+9', 🟨,
90+10', 0 - 3, Carter A. ⚽,
90+11', 🟨,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 4 and 15).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Leiria may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Leiria is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Leiria won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	SC Farense	6	3	2	1	11:5	6	11
7	Leiria	6	3	1	2	10:7	3	10

Last Results with these Odds

Leiria - the odds 1.9 are the expected chance of winning is 49.11%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Leiria
Portuguese Liga 2
25.04.26	Felgueiras - Leiria	2:1 ✺
18.04.26	Leiria - Penafiel	4:2 ✺
11.04.26	Benfica B - Leiria	2:2 ✺
05.04.26	Leiria - Lusitânia	0:0 ✺
29.03.26	Leiria - Paços de Ferreira	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LWTTW
- SC Farense
Portuguese Liga 2
25.04.26	Farense - Académico de Viseu	0:0 ✺
19.04.26	Vizela - Farense	0:2 ✺
11.04.26	Farense - Sporting Lisbon B	2:1 ✺
04.04.26	Farense - Feirense	0:1 ✺
22.03.26	Benfica B - Farense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 TWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
21.12.25	Farense - Leiria	0:1
Club Friendly
19.07.25	Farense - Leiria	2:0

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