Match Info

1. Lig - Round 38

Date: 10 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Atatürk Olimpiyat (Istanbul)

Referee: Meler H. U. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	TOD
Turkey	beIN Connect, Tabii, TRT Spor


	Fatih Karagümrükspor		Igdirspor

	1	X	2
	3	3.4	2.2	Watch
	3	3.25	2.05
	3.02	3.63	2.06
	2.99	3.65	2.22
	3.08	3.62	2.15	Watch
	3.2	3.1	2.15
	3.13	3.36	2.15
	3.02	3.63	2.06
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.06 ↑ (2.8)	3.46 ↑ (3.2)	2.13 ↓ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fatih Karagümrükspor
30.1%

Draw
26.6%

Igdirspor
43.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.4%

29.2%

37.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.6%

28.5%

38.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fatih Karagümrükspor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Igdirspor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Igdirspor's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fatih Karagümrükspor than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Igdirspor than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Fatih Karagümrükspor - Igdirspor Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Karagümrük will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Igdirspor will win (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Fatih Karagümrükspor will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bilgin E. (G) 23. Ulvan T. 4. Demir Y. E. 3. Djilobodji P. 33. Kurukalip C. 35. Cankaya A. R. 14. Doh M. 7. Camacho J. 19. Gurpuz G. 11. Johnson D. 9. Wesley Moraes	99. Gungordu B. (G) 17. Engin A. 4. Ozturk A. 29. Conte A. 22. Cavlan C. 24. Sarikaya M. 10. Regattin A. 90. Avramovski D. 8. Eysseric V. 34. Rogerio Thuram 9. Bruno G.
Substitutes
97. Akyuz F. (G) 94. Cinar A. 5. Demirol A. 10. Dovedan N. 15. Dursun S. 91. Gray A. 72. Kalayci B. 20. Mert M. 17. Sivri A. 22. Tintis E.	97. Akyildiz S. 86. Bekaroglu B. 91. Colak A. 20. Colgecen M. 27. Ethemi V. 19. Karayel C. 58. Kaya G. 1. Kose F. (G) 12. Malle A. 6. Selvi A.
Coaches
Korkmaz O.	Cavus C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
23', 1 - 0, Wesley Moraes (Pen),
39', 1 - 1, Bruno G. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
54', Avramovski D. ↓, Ethemi V. ↑,
59', Johnson D. ↓, Dovedan N. ↑,
65', Gurpuz G. 🟨,
68', Conte A. 🟨,
73', Camacho J. ↓, Sivri A. ↑,
85', Engin A. ↓, Bekaroglu B. ↑,
85', Sarikaya M. ↓, Kaya G. ↑,
86', Ulvan T. ↓, Gray A. ↑,
86', Gurpuz G. ↓, Kalayci B. ↑,
87', 2 - 1, Gray A. ⚽, Sivri A. (A),
90+1', Djilobodji P. 🟨,
90+4', Eysseric V. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ 1. Lig (Play Offs: Final) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ 1. Lig (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Karagümrük has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Igdirspor is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Igdirspor will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Karagümrük: Ersoy O. (Inactive)

There will not play in Igdirspor: Asan S. (Elbow Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Karagümrük won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fatih Karagümrükspor
Turkish First League
04.05.25	Pendikspor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	2:0 ✺
27.04.25	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Keçiörengücü	1:0 ✺
19.04.25	Boluspor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	1:0 ✺
13.04.25	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Gençlerbirliği	0:0 ✺
09.04.25	Erokspor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LWLTL
- Igdirspor
Turkish First League
04.05.25	Igdirspor - Kocaelispor	4:0 ✺
27.04.25	Yeni Malatyaspor - Igdirspor	0:9 ✺
21.04.25	Igdirspor - Sakaryaspor	4:0 ✺
14.04.25	Bandırmaspor - Igdirspor	1:1 ✺
08.04.25	Igdirspor - İstanbulspor	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Turkish First League
11.01.25	Igdirspor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	0:1
Club Friendly
18.07.24	Igdirspor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	1:0

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