Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Promotion Group - Round 4

Date: 17 May 2025, Saturday


	Fatima		Lusitano GC

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.3	1.73
	4.73	3.48	1.7
	4.73	3.42	1.68
	4.5	3.3	1.73
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.62 ↑ (3.35)	3.38 ↓ (3.6)	1.71 ↓ (1.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fatima
19.7%

Draw
27%

Lusitano GC
53.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.2%

25.3%

47.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.4%

24.5%

49%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fatima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fatima's form might have worsened.

Lusitano GC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lusitano GC's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fatima than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fatima, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lusitano GC than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Fatima - Lusitano GC Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
32', 0 - 1, Pinto J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Recent performances by Fatima have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Lusitano GC is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Lusitano GC is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Fatima won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Fatima
Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
11.05.25	Amora - Fatima	2:0 ✺
04.05.25	Fatima - Elvas	3:1 ✺
27.04.25	Lusitano GC - Fatima	3:0 ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
13.04.25	Mortágua - Fatima	2:0 ✺
06.04.25	Fatima - Arronches Benfica	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LWLLW
- Lusitano GC
Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
11.05.25	Elvas - Lusitano GC	1:4 ✺
04.05.25	Lusitano GC - Amora	3:1 ✺
27.04.25	Lusitano GC - Fatima	3:0 ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
13.04.25	Lusitano GC - Estrela da Amadora B	1:2 ✺
06.04.25	Sintrense - Lusitano GC	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
27.04.25	Lusitano GC - Fatima	3:0

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