The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Fatima 29.3%
Draw 31.2%
Vitória de Sernache 39.5%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
25.9%
29.7%
44.4%
Our Initial ML Estimation
26%
29.8%
44.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Fatima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)
Vitória de Sernache has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fatima than the current prediction. (-3.3%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitória de Sernache than the current prediction. (+4.7%)
Fatima - Vitória de Sernache Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 2)
5', 1 - 0, ⚽,
39', 1 - 1, ⚽,
45+3', 1 - 2, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
86', 2 - 2, ⚽,
Preview
A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 in the zone Relegation and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Campeonato de Portugal ~ Promotion Group).
Sernache is Qualified for Campeonato de Portugal ~ Promotion Group
Fatima is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Sernache has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Fatima may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Sernache might have a minor edge in this game.
In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Fatima won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).
Including home match between the teams, Fatima won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.
Watch
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