Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C - Round 23

Date: 21 March 2026, Saturday


	Vitória de Sernache		Samora Correia

	1	X	2
	1.37	4	7.25
	1.35	4.15	7.9
	1.38	4.05	8.27	Watch
	1.32	4.2	9.45
	1.3	3.75	7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↑ (1.3)	4.03 ↑ (3.75)	7.97 ↑ (7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitória de Sernache
66.6%

Draw
22.2%

Samora Correia
11.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.3%

22.6%

12.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.7%

21.8%

11.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitória de Sernache has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Samora Correia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitória de Sernache than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Samora Correia than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Vitória de Sernache - Samora Correia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
21', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Campeonato de Portugal ~ Promotion Group and 12 in the zone Relegation).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Sernache is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Sernache won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vitória de Sernache
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
15.03.26	Peniche - Vitória de Sernache	0:1 ✺
08.03.26	Vitória de Sernache - Oliveira Hospital	0:1 ✺
28.02.26	Marinhense - Vitória de Sernache	0:0 ✺
22.02.26	Vitória de Sernache - SC Lusitânia	2:1 ✺
15.02.26	União da Serra - Vitória de Sernache	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WLTWT
- GD Samora Correia
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
15.03.26	Samora Correia - Os Marialvas	0:1 ✺
08.03.26	Naval - Samora Correia	2:1 ✺
01.03.26	Samora Correia - Mortágua	1:0 ✺
22.02.26	Fatima - Samora Correia	2:2 ✺
15.02.26	Samora Correia - Lajense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
29.11.25	Samora Correia - Vitória de Sernache	0:1

Vitória de Sernache - Samora Correia: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide