Match Info

ARGENTINA: PRIMERA NACIONAL - ROUND 24

Date: 30 July 2023, Sunday

Location: Estadio Arquitecto Ricardo Etcheverry (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Pafundi J. (Arg)


	Ferro Carril Oeste		Villa Dálmine

	1	X	2
	1.53	3.8	7
	1.46	4.1	6
	1.4	4.1	7.6
	1.48	4.2	7.29
	1.47	3.7	7
	1.5	4.1	6.8
	1.49	4	6.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↑ (1.41)	4 ↓ (4.1)	6.84 ↓ (7.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferro Carril Oeste
63.1%

Draw
23.3%

Villa Dálmine
13.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65%

22.4%

12.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.4%

14.6%

19.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferro Carril Oeste has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Villa Dálmine has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferro Carril Oeste than the current prediction. (-20.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ferro Carril Oeste that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Villa Dálmine than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Villa Dálmine could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	16.7%	33.3%

Ferro Carril Oeste - Villa Dálmine Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Ferro Carril will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Villa Dálmine will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jachfe L. (G) 4. Grana H. 2. Arena N. 6. Alvarado P. 3. Rodriguez M. 8. Erbes C. 5. Vazquez K. A. 7. Palacio P. 10. Mosca C. 11. Nunez W. 9. Herrera J.	1. Salerno F. (G) 4. Pereyra A. 2. Giacopuzzi F. 6. Rosso F. 3. Maidana L. 5. Gimenez J. 7. Jofre L. 8. Gargiulo V. 10. Castaneda D. 11. Groba G. 9. Molina J.
Substitutes
13. Boolsen P. 17. Campos M. 18. Colombini I. 19. Diaz A. 14. Faggioli L. 16. Gonzalez G. 15. Machado W. 12. Mino M. (G) 20. Retamar K.	17. Alcaraz A. 19. Conberse B. 13. Cosciuc F. 18. Forlani S. 12. Hernandez D. (G) 15. Perez R. 20. Ramirez B. 14. Romat N. 16. Tello L.
Coaches
Cordon J. L.	Gareca F.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ferro Carril won 1.

Recent matches Ferro Carril is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Villa Dálmine is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Villa Dálmine could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Ferro Carril is indisputable favorite.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Ferro Carril won 3 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 11-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Ferro Carril won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ferro Carril Oeste
Argentinian Primera Nacional
22.07.23	Deportivo Madryn - Ferro Carril Oeste	1:0 ✺
16.07.23	Ferro Carril Oeste - Atlético de Rafaela	0:1 ✺
09.07.23	Estudiantes de Caseros - Ferro Carril Oeste	1:2 ✺
30.06.23	Ferro Carril Oeste - Brown de Adrogué	1:0 ✺
24.06.23	Quilmes - Ferro Carril Oeste	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LLWWL
- Villa Dálmine
Argentinian Primera Nacional
23.07.23	Villa Dálmine - Deportivo Riestra	1:2 ✺
16.07.23	Racing de Córdoba - Villa Dálmine	0:0 ✺
08.07.23	Villa Dálmine - Atlanta Buenos Aires	0:2 ✺
01.07.23	Tristán Suárez - Villa Dálmine	1:1 ✺
24.06.23	Villa Dálmine - Chacarita Juniors	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
25.03.23	Villa Dálmine - Ferro Carril Oeste	2:0
06.08.22	Villa Dálmine - Ferro Carril Oeste	1:0
19.10.21	Villa Dálmine - Ferro Carril Oeste	1:1
23.06.21	Ferro Carril Oeste - Villa Dálmine	0:0
12.11.18	Ferro Carril Oeste - Villa Dálmine	2:0
17.03.18	Ferro Carril Oeste - Villa Dálmine	2:1
25.06.17	Villa Dálmine - Ferro Carril Oeste	0:0

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