Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 13

Date: 4 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Arena Fonte Luminosa (Araraquara)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	SportyNet
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Ferroviária		Caxias

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.05	2.90	3.40
	2.02	2.92	3.6	Watch
	2.07	3.15	3.7
	2.09	3.07	3.72	Watch
	2.02	2.85	3.6
	2.05	2.93	3.67
	2.02	2.90	3.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↓ (2.38)	2.96 ↑ (2.85)	3.61 ↑ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferroviária
44.3%

Draw
30.6%

Caxias
25.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.9%

32.5%

28.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

32.7%

28.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferroviária has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ferroviária's performance.

Caxias has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ferroviária that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caxias than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Ferroviária - Caxias Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Denis Junior (G) 10. Albano 8. Alencar 38. Allison 9. Denilson Silva 29. Eduardo Oliveira 7. Fau 22. Felipe Rodrigues 4. Guilherme Ferreira 5. Ricardinho (C) 40. Ze Vitor	1. Busatto G. (G) 5. Breno Santos 7. Calyson 2. Felipe Albuquerque 9. Gaspar 3. Ianson 19. Jhonatan Ribeiro 4. Mancha 10. Marcelo Freitas (C) 8. Matheus Nunes 6. Roberto
Substitutes
17. Cantarelli M. 36. Douglas Skilo 15. Fernandinho 34. Gustavo Jundi (G) 14. Jhonatan Garcia 18. Rafael Carillho 30. Raoni 23. Schilling Arthur 19. Thiago M. 26. Vinicius Kaue 51. Vinicius M. 25. Vinni Faria	20. Felipe Rangel 22. Joao Lucas 12. Marcelo (G) 21. Matheus Anjos 17. Portela Torres K. C. 16. Victor Sa 11. Vitor Feijao 18. Vitor Gabriel 13. Windson
Coaches
Rogerio Correa	Marcelo Cabo

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
15', Matheus Nunes 🟨,
31', Guilherme Ferreira 🟨,
34', Felipe Rodrigues 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
56', Ze Vitor ↓, Fernandinho ↑,
56', Allison ↓, Thiago M. ↑,
69', Ricardinho ↓, Rafael Carillho ↑,
69', Denilson Silva ↓, Douglas Skilo ↑,
73', Gaspar ↓, Felipe Rangel ↑,
73', Calyson ↓, Victor Sa ↑,
74', 0 - 1, Fernandinho (Own goal),
79', Fau ↓, Vinni Faria ↑,
83', Matheus Nunes ↓, Windson ↑,
83', Marcelo Freitas ↓, Vitor Gabriel ↑,
90+1', Jhonatan Ribeiro ↓, Vitor Feijao ↑,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: ) and 11).

Ferroviária is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Caxias has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Ferroviária could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ferroviária won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Outrights of Brazilian Serie C for now

Ferroviaria: 23.95%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Associação Ferroviária de Esportes
Brazilian Serie C
27.06.26	Itabaiana - Ferroviária	1:0 ✺
21.06.26	Ferroviária - Internacional de Limeira	2:0 ✺
15.06.26	Ferroviária - Barra Santa Catarina	1:0 ✺
31.05.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Ferroviária	1:1 ✺
24.05.26	Amazonas - Ferroviária	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.7 LWWTW
- SER Caxias do Sul
Brazilian Serie C
30.06.26	Caxias - Anápolis	1:1 ✺
21.06.26	Caxias - Maringá	1:1 ✺
13.06.26	Guarani - Caxias	2:1 ✺
30.05.26	Caxias - Ituano	2:1 ✺
23.05.26	Maranhão - Caxias	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
16.06.24	Caxias - Ferroviária	0:0

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