Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 9

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Francisco Stedile (Caxias do Sul)


	Caxias		Ituano

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.82	3	4.2
	1.82	3.05	4.25	Watch
	1.88	3.2	4.54
	1.87	3.15	4.62	Watch
	1.83	2.9	4.2
	1.81	3.1	4.43	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↓ (1.98)	3.07 ↑ (3.02)	4.37 ↑ (3.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caxias
49.5%

Draw
29.7%

Ituano
20.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.6%

29.9%

24.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.2%

31.6%

23.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caxias has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Ituano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caxias than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ituano than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Caxias - Ituano Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Caxias will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Ituano will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Busatto G. (G) 7. Calyson 2. Felipe Albuquerque 11. Gaspar 5. Grigor 3. Ianson 8. Matheus Nunes 4. Mauricio Ribeiro (C) 10. Ravanelli 6. Roberto 9. Salatiel	1. Saulo (G) 9. Gabriel Razera 5. Gabriel William 10. Guilherme Xavier (C) 3. Leo Coltro 2. Lucas Mota 4. Matheus Mancini 11. Neto Berola 8. Richard 7. Thassio 6. Tiaguinho
Substitutes
15. Breno Santos 18. Felipe Rangel 19. Jhonatan Ribeiro 22. Joao Lucas 14. Mancha 12. Marcelo (G) 21. Marcelo Freitas 23. Matheus Anjos 16. Victor Sa 17. Vitor Feijao 20. Vitor Gabriel 13. Windson	21. Bruno Alves 19. Bruno Mezenga 14. Carlao 20. Felipe Muranga 16. Guilherme Dal Pian 17. Leo Passos 15. Leo Souza 22. Lucas Stefanello 18. Martha 12. Pantera J. (G) 13. Victor Reis
Coaches
Marcelo Cabo	de Freitas U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
30', Roberto 🟨,
45+3', Richard 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
48', 0 - 1, Neto Berola ⚽,
61', Roberto ↓, Victor Sa ↑,
61', Grigor ↓, Marcelo Freitas ↑,
61', Gaspar ↓, Vitor Feijao ↑,
62', Richard 🟨,
64', Gabriel Razera ↓, Leo Passos ↑,
65', Neto Berola ↓, Martha ↑,
66', Guilherme Xavier 🟨,
68', Calyson 🟨,
73', Guilherme Xavier ↓, Leo Souza ↑,
75', 1 - 1, Vitor Feijao ⚽,
80', Ravanelli ↓, Felipe Rangel ↑,
80', Felipe Albuquerque ↓, Vitor Gabriel ↑,
82', Thassio ↓, Bruno Alves ↑,
82', Gabriel William ↓, Victor Reis ↑,
90+5', 2 - 1, Salatiel ⚽,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: )).

In recent matches, Caxias has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ituano is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Caxias has had a series of away games.

In this match, Caxias is the team to beat.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Caxias won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Caxias won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 2.5:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Ituano - the odds 3.7 are the expected chance of winning is 24.45%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SER Caxias do Sul
Brazilian Serie C
23.05.26	Maranhão - Caxias	0:0 ✺
17.05.26	Caxias - Paysandu	2:0 ✺
10.05.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Caxias	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
06.05.26	São Bernardo - Caxias	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
03.05.26	Amazonas - Caxias	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 TWTTT
- Ituano
Brazilian Serie C
25.05.26	Ituano - Botafogo PB	1:0 ✺
17.05.26	Guarani - Ituano	1:3 ✺
10.05.26	Ituano - Confiança	1:0 ✺
05.05.26	Ypiranga - Ituano	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
30.04.26	Ferroviária - Ituano	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
29.06.25	Caxias - Ituano	2:1
Brazilian Serie D
02.07.16	Ituano - Caxias	2:1
26.06.16	Caxias - Ituano	3:1

Caxias - Ituano: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide